Saturday, May 30, 2009

Is Worst Over For India???

This may be a very premature question! But if you look at the presently available data in various forms, all those are reflecting one common thing, that is may be worst is over for India.

We will go one by one...

Yesterday GDP numbers came in and because of that (and some other reasons) market (sensex) went some 300 odd points and crossed 14600 mark. Anyway I talk about the market later, first we will look into GDP numbers. Guys who read my blogs regularly, you may be remember that in February, I wrote in blog that for the fiscal year 2008-09 GDP may grow by 6.5% to 6.7%. For your convenience, I am pasting one paragraph from that post of February...

"Now if we calculate the first 9 month GDP it will come to 6.93% [(7.9+7.6+5.3)/3] & to achieve the earlier predicted target of 7.1% we need to have 7.7% [(7.1*4)- (7.9+7.6+5.3)in the 4th quarter. That is quite optimistic figure looking at present conditions. Going by present economic conditions India's GDP growth for fiscal year 2008-09 may be 6.5% to 6.7%."

And according to yesterday's GDP reports, India's GDP growth for the fiscal 2008-09 was .6.7%. In 4th quarter GDP growth was 5.8% as compared to 3rd quarter 5.3%. Here you can see that I am not comparing this data with 4th quarter of 2007-08 in which GDP growth was 8.8% which was altogether different scenario as compared to present condition. The real saver of the day was Agriculture sector which has grown at 2.7% in 4th quarter as compared to 3rd quarter's revised data of -0.8%.

Manufacturing sector has grown -1.4% which was no big surprise if you would have seen last 2-3 months IIP numbers.

And if you look at the construction sector it has grown 6.8% in 4th quarter as compared to 4.2% in 3rd quarter. The financial services sector, among the most affected, grew at 9.5 per cent in January-March 2009, compared with 8.3 per cent in October-December 2008.

And these are the GDP related indicators, now when you come to stock market numbers, it has grown nearly 75% as compared to 8000 odd levels in March to 14600 odd levels by May. And the reality, metal & bank index have grown 180%, 140% & 120% respectively in 3 months period. And you people may be aware that stock market is considered as the leading indicator for an economy. In addition to that other indexes which I have mentioned like Metal, Reality & Bank form the crucial in an economy, which are showing growth indication in stock market as absolute terms.

And when you come to Inflation by WPI everybody thought it will be in negative form from March. But it still in positive though it is below 1% as compared to very high base of previous year. This shows the buying power hasnt affected by this recession which is a good sign for any economy.

Anyway I will continue some other time as I am feeling hungry now... Take care guys, bye until my next post...

Saturday, May 23, 2009

Singh Is King

Last Saturday when Election results came out, I thought of writing/posting an article on Mr. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. But due to some reasons I couldn't do it.

Now today in Business Standard I got this article about Mr. Manmohan Singh, so I am posting that one only.

Manmohan Singh is a hugely under-rated politician, a party colleague said recently on television. If you were to judge by the end results, that is certainly the case, for who else has had a political career spanning 18 years that has seen no accidents, no scandal, but a long period on a continuous ascendant?

He survived five years as finance minister, with his place in history secure. He then served as party leader in the Rajya Sabha, and has survived five years as prime minister when few would have bet on it in 2004. Now he has the rare privilege of starting his second term — with no one questioning his mandate, or dismissing him as “weak.”

To be sure, a lot of this is because of the unwavering support and commitment of Sonia Gandhi, but she could have chosen any of several others. If initially Singh had greatness thrust on him, he has also acquired greatness. If he has never won a Lok Sabha election but can become the natural leader of a country of nearly 1.2 billion people, there must be more to him than meets the eye.

What is visible are his obvious qualities: An intellect that few can match, wisdom about men and matters acquired over a lifetime in the government, deep understanding of how the Indian system works and how much it can be pushed, unimpeachable integrity that gives him a Teflon protection from the doings of corrupt colleagues, a self-effacing humility, and unfailing courtesy to others.

For these and other reasons, people now recognise him as a good and decent man who will do only what is right for the country, and who commands respect in the councils of the world. There aren’t many Indian politicians about whom you can say either of the two.

Two favourite dictums have defined his politics. As finance minister, he was fond of quoting Victor Hugo, that there is nothing in the world as powerful as an idea whose time has come. But if the “idea” then was market-oriented reforms, as prime minister, he has tacked to a new wind.

The person he quotes to friends these days is Bismarck, that politics is the art of the possible. Indeed, the essence of his prime ministership is that he has tried to beaver away at things that need doing, without seeking a profile for himself or swimming against the political currents.

It is not an accident that, in five years, he has held only one press conference in the country, and given no interviews to the Indian media. He has allowed others to influence if not dictate to him the choice of ministerial colleagues, the programmes on which money should be showered, the misdoings to which he should turn a blind eye. It would seem that he has taken to heart the old ‘serenity prayer’—“God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, courage to change the things I can, and wisdom to know the difference.”

So the key question is, what has he changed?

His colleagues offer a long list: The educational initiatives he has launched, to set up new institutes of technology for instance; the rural health mission; the urban renewal mission; an ambitious action plan on minority welfare and upliftment that was put together after the Sachar report.

A multi-mission project is now ready to address climate change, and he has promised major administrative reform to deal with the poor standards of governance. It is typical of Singh that while all of these address basic issues, none of them has the mass appeal of the rural employment guarantee programme (about which he was initially sceptical).

It can be difficult to figure out when he is speaking his mind, and when he is merely following the party line. As finance minister, he argued publicly that “You cannot spend your way to prosperity”— this was in response to largesse announced by PV Narasimha Rao from the Red Fort on Independence Day. As prime minister, he has opened the fiscal tap like no one before him. As finance minister, he spoke out courageously against crony capitalism — which, ironically, has flourished in the last five years.

But he cannot be pushed beyond a point, as L K Advani found out after Singh rounded on him in the wake of the “weak PM” attack. When it came to the Indo-US nuclear deal, he was willing to resign, just as he was as Reserve Bank governor when he was pressured to allow a bank branch for a questionable Pakistani bank, and when as finance minister he got no political support for his proposal to reduce fertiliser subsidies.

Typically, he saw in the nuclear deal merits that had nothing to do with the splitting of the atom: “If the world sees you as America’s friend, many countries start dealing with you differently,” he once said. “This deal will open many doors for India.”

While people recognise the nuclear deal as one of his achievements, few are conscious of the enormous groundwork and shuttle diplomacy that was done before 45 countries signed on the dotted line — it had to be unanimous, or there was going to be no breakthrough. Singh marshaled his forces and monitored progress down to the wire.

He can be a good negotiator too. Few remember that it was Manmohan Singh who was sent to work out an alliance between the Congress and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in Jammu and Kashmir after the state elections there in 2002. Mindful of how important it was to provide stability to this sensitive border state, and making sure the government was a truly representative one, Singh managed the impossible: A rotating chief ministership between the Congress led by Ghulam Nabi Azad and PDP led by Mufti Mohammad Sayeed. The relationship unraveled six months ahead of the Assembly elections in 2008. But by acting as an honest broker, he managed to put in place an arrangement that won the confidence of the people of Jammu and Kashmir.

This quality came in handy when Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) leader Mayawati called him to congratulate him after the Lok Sabha victory. He won her over by referring to her as “my younger sister”. From anyone else, it might have sounded cheesy. From Singh, it was the equivalent of a garland: An open-minded embrace of the socially deprived. Similarly, it was healthy pragmatism on the part of the Samajwadi Party, but also Singh’s reaching out to the SP leaders, that saved his government from falling in the late summer of 2008.

The big question, of course, is the same as it was in 2004: Will he stay for a full five years or, this time round, might he move to Rashtrapati Bhavan in 2013, when he turns 80? In a recent interview, Pranab Mukherjee said: “He is our Prime Minister and will stay for four or five years.” Four or five?

Thursday, May 21, 2009

Response to Kuki's Comment


Hi Kuki,

I am humbled by your response to blog and its material. What you are saying is right man, I am also feeling same way. The point I have stopped or reduced the blogging, I drastically reduced the reading! All these 2-3 months I was very lazy to post even though I was reading little bit. Many times I thought of writing about many things due to laziness I dropped those ideas of writings. And in addition to that Placement Season stretching too much time!

Now everything is settled I am hoping that I may resume posting regularly. But I am afraid I may not in a position to post the article daily as I used to post in college. Lets see...


Kuki's Comments

Hi.......
What is going on how is life going on. Yar why have you stopped posting articles on your blog that was the only thing i used to read some time. please for the sake of some poor people like us post some articles we will also be in touch with that is going on in the world outside and thanks a lot for all the stuff that is coming very useful i hope you have my new number it is 9686555990 ok so be in touch and keep posting on your blog



Sunday, May 3, 2009

PM Dr. Manmohan Singh: Iron fist in velvet glove

From last 5 years, so called Mr. Iron Man of India Mr. L.K. Advani criticized Prime Minister Manmohan Singh as week PM or Nikamma PM. And Manmohan Singh didnt utter a single word against him all these years. But recently Prime Minister retaliated for that criticism by asking the contribution of Mr. L.K. Advani to the country till date from his RSS days! And people started calling it as mudslinging! I too dont find any CONSTRUCTIVE contribution towards country, rather his biggest achievement is DESTRUCTION OF BABRI MASJID.

Anyway today read an article about Mr. Manmohan Singh, so I wanted share with you guys. This article I read it in article written by Dr Sanjaya Baru. Article starts like this:

It was late night on April 6, 2005, that I saw a side of Manmohan Singh that I had never seen before. To me the events of that evening define his personality.

As we prepared to leave next morning for Srinagar, where the prime minister would flag off the first Srinagar-Muzzafarabad passenger bus service, news broke of a terrorist attack on the tourist complex in Srinagar. The encounter between terrorists and security forces took its toll. The rest of the day and evening was spent trying to assess the situation and decide whether the prime minister and Congress party president Sonia Gandhi would fly next morning to Srinagar or not. It was possible that an even bigger attack had been planned for the next day.

In the evening the Union home minister and all senior security officials, including the national security advisor, chiefs of intelligence agencies and others gathered at 7, Race Course Road, the official home of the prime minister. The consensus view was that the bus service launch should be postponed. Even as the meeting progressed the prime minister received phone calls from senior cabinet colleagues and some chief ministers expressing their concern for his safety and that of Mrs Gandhi. Mrs Gandhi called the PM and told him that she would go by his advice and decision.

Advice against going ahead with the programme kept pouring in. Almost no one in authority could guarantee 100 pc safety of the PM. After landing at Srinagar airport he would have to travel to the venue of the public meeting either by road or helicopter. Terrorists could attack anywhere. The weather was playing truant. It could rain. Which meant the helicopter ride would be difficult. Going by road would require a security clampdown of an order that the PM did not favour.

"I cannot impose curfew in Srinagar and then go to launch a bus service!" an angry PM said when someone suggested that option. At the end of a long evening the official advice was, 'postpone the event'.

One by one all the ministers and officers left. The PM was tired and looked deeply worried. I sat with him alone for a few minutes in complete silence. The TV in the room was on with visuals of the day's destruction in Srinagar. Fire, gun shots, a building burnt, people crying. We stared at the TV without a word.

After what seemed like ages he spoke. "I will go," he said, and asked his personal secratary to connect him to Mrs Gandhi. "I don't want to postpone tomorrow's programme" he told her, "I will go." She agreed, and said she would go too. I rushed out to inform the media.

The phrase that comes to my mind when I reflect on the personality of Manmohan Singh is, 'an iron fist in a velvet glove.' But the other phrase that also captures his style is, 'he stoops to conquer!'

Any man who has spent the first decade of his life in a village that had no drinking water, no school, no electricity, no hospital and lived through the trauma of partition, and then went on to win coveted academic awards at Oxford and Cambridge Universities and was introduced by the Secretary-General of Association of South East Asian Nations to a gathering of Asian leaders as the "world's most qualified head of government," is no ordinary mortal.

As his media advisor and spokesman I would often say that my job was like that of a BMW [Images] brand manager! The brand is so good, you hardly need to manage it. It is, therefore, not surprising that despite all the canards that have been spread about him, all the maligning and misrepresentation, he remains streets ahead of all his political rivals as the nation's choice for the prime minister. Ordinary Indians have come to value the quiet but reassuring presence of a philosopher-king at the helm of the ship of State.

It is not often, however, that Manmohan Singh allows the steel inside him to be revealed. His consensual style gives the impression that he is willing to be pushed around. It is because he consults almost everybody, from the consequential to the inconsequential, before taking a decision that some assume he has no agenda of his own.

Long before the public stand he took on the civil nuclear cooperation agreement, which made everyone sit up and notice, I have seen him get his way on so many issues, big and small, without making this obvious to all those who came to believe the decision was a consensual one, rather than the will of the prime minister.

This made my job as a media advisor very difficult on many occasions because he would not want me to share with the media how a particular decision of the government was in fact his and not that of someone else who may be claiming, or just being given, the credit for it.

Even on the nuclear agreement he was willing to let the Left Front take credit for securing a final agreement that was in the nation's interests! This was a compromise formula communicated to the prime minister by a senior Left leader. When the final 123 agreement between India and the United States was made a public document, one view within the Left Front was that they should take credit by claiming that they had helped secure a better outcome than what the prime minister was capable of securing from the Americans.

'We will say that it is our stand in Parliament that forced the government to negotiate a better agreement. This way we can support the agreement and at the same time be seen distancing ourselves from the Congress and the prime minister.' If this view had prevailed in the higher councils of the Left Front, the United Progressive Allaince government would have served its full term with no problem. At least one senior Left leader, who had said to Manmohan Singh when he took charge as prime minister, "I assure you of our support for a full five year term", wanted to go along with this compromise formula so that he could keep his word to the prime minister.

Clearly, Singh was willing to stoop to conquer. But when this compromise formula was rejected by the hardliners in the Left, Singh had no option but to show the iron fist in his velvet glove. Never under-estimate the determination of a self-made man!

More often than not Singh would get his way through patient consultation. There is no major decision I am aware of on which he had not consulted his senior colleagues and senior UPA leaders. There is of course the institution of the weekly Friday meeting of the Congress party 'core group'. The group included the PM, the Congress president and a handful of senior party leaders. It would meet every Friday at 6 pm at 7, RCR.

But apart from this formal consultation, he would be on the phone with UPA leaders like M Karunanidhi, Sharad Pawar and Lalu Prasad and keep them informed on every major decision, and get their concurrence before acting. His is a classic cabinet style of functioning. On major policy issues he would keep even the Left in the loop.

The downside of such a consultative process is, of course, that decision-making takes time and tough decisions don't always get taken. But that is the price we pay for having diverse coalitions. There is a paradox in the liberal angst about politics and policy in India. On the one hand we celebrate coalitions as a mirror of our diversity; on the other hand we want 'tough' leaders who will impose their will.

Manmohan Singh's style of functioning reflects the genius of consensual policy making in the era of coalitions, when leaders stoop to conquer and soften their blows with velvet gloves!

Saturday, May 2, 2009

Be prepared for the UNCERTAIN FUTURE: New Pension Scheme

Now most of our batch mates started working & will get their First Salary soon (Some people might have got their 1st as well as 2nd Salary). Now I would like all you people start saving little bit (from your salary say at least 10%)for uncertain future like present conditions. And there are various kinds of savings options depending on individual's salary, expenditure pattern, age, dependents, knowledge over different investment options, risk taking ability & etc.

Pension scheme is one of these several investment options we got here.

With nearly 4-5 years of struggle UPA government has passed the New Pension Scheme bill, thanks to LEFT PARTIES...

There is very good article in BUSINESS STANDARD where they given brief information about the New Pension Scheme. I would like you people please go through without neglecting by saying ITS FINANCE STUFF.
If you people dont have time or not interested in reading full article at least read the below paragraph which I have pasted here from the article

"What is the default option?

The default option, called auto choice lifecycle fund, will see the investment mix change according to the age of the subscriber. At the lowest entry age of 18 years, auto choice entails an investment of 50 per cent in E, 30 per cent in C and 20 per cent in G.

The ratios will remain unchanged till the subscriber turns 36, when the ratio of investment in E and C will decrease annually, while the proportion of G rises.

By the time the subscriber is 55 years, G will account for 80 per cent of the corpus, while the share of E and C will fall to 10 per cent each"


You may wonder why particularly I posted this paragraph only. If you read that first paragraph carefully you will come to know! See at our age we dont have much responsibility or I can say dependents (Apart from some exceptional cases) so that we save more for very much possible rainy days. So how to save come the next question. As stated in the first paragraph, now we can take more risk like investing in stock market but that doesn't mean invest all your SAVINGS in stock market itself. Stock market is very volatile, you cant take back your money whenever you want. So I strongly suggest always keep aside some reserve amount which you require for your immediate future say 3-4 months expenditure or something like that. So out of your total savings, have at least 20% in liquid forms like Bank FDs & Savings account. And remaining thing you can invest like above mentioned paragraph depending on your risk taking ability & awareness.

I wanted to write more but I think its enough for today!!!