Sunday, January 31, 2010

Is it the right time to start buying?


Guys last week, I posted my views about Nifty's support levels that whether it is going to hold 100 day moving average. And in that I expressed my concerned over various factors like global market movements, RBI policy & etc. And as I thought market didn't hold the 100 day moving average of 4940 levels.


Now market has corrected from 5300 levels to sub 4800 levels, i.e. almost 500 points in Nifty, which means 10% correction from its previous high in just 7-8 trading sessions. So now question is, whether the correction is over or still more to go?


If you see the previous highs & corrections, market has corrected to 78.6% from its high as per Fibonacci retracement. That is from 5200 levels to 4600/4580 levels. And if you go beyond that in August 09 market has corrected from 4700 levels to 4400 i.e. 50% retracement in Fibonacci.

And if you see the recent correction in market, that is 78.6% correction from 5300 levels to 4760 levels, which is Friday's intrady low. If market hold on to that level, then I believe market will be range bound of 4800 - 5000 for next few trading sessions.

So does it mean that we should start buying from this level? I think one can invest his 25% of his corpus at present level or 4700 level. Because I believe market may still come down from present level to 4600 which forms intermediate support in medium term.

So bottom line is one should be cautious at this level because one more major event is coming this month i.e February last week Budget. So as usual pre-budget corrections/expectation will be there. So be cautious is the status I would like to maintain.

Sunday, January 24, 2010

Does market going to hold 100 day moving average level


Last week, 4 days out of 5 days market came down from almost 5300 levels to sub 5000 level. That is almost 300 points in 4 days in Nifty and more than 1000 points in broadly tracked index Sensex. Last 2 days fall mainly due to unexpected results from L&T and US president Mr. Barrack Obama's statement regarding investment banking & their proprietary trading issue.

Because of Obama's statement Dow Jones and S&P index fell more than 2% on Friday.

So does our market is also expected to open with gap down on Monday. So the question is does market is going to hold 100 days moving average level of 4940/4950 levels.

There are various factors which may trigger down side of market like RBI's monetary policy announcement during this week, budgetary expectations Vs fiscal deficit control, global markets movements, fear of double dip recession.

But one thing for sure that any correction should be taken as entry for medium & long term investment. Because I believe (As usual) market always moves 2 steps ahead & 1 step backward.

And if you see the below graph, from November low levels it is exactly resembles Dow theory.


Friday, January 22, 2010

Importance of Long Term Investment

Guys, some days back I wrote in one of my posting's bottom line that "try to find invest in those small & medium caps which in future can become large caps".

So in support of that saying I have some data for you people. This data gives the rate of return in 10 years from 1999 to 2009 which includes 2 recessions (dot com bubble burst & recent financial crisis). That means these below prices are not at their all time high, for example in below table first one is Aban offshore ltd whose all time high is sub 5000 level but current price level is 1300 odd level. So bottom line is factoring all type of variations(bullish & as well bearish) in stock price, below is the return you will get in long term...

Company 15-Dec-99 15-Dec-09 Change
Aban Offshore Ltd. 6.7 1,191.20 17705%
Era Infra Engg. Ltd. 1.2 197 16181%
Shriram Transport Finance Co. Ltd. 4.5 451.3 9929%
Kalpataru Power Transmission Ltd. 20 1,020.20 5001%
Jubilant Organosys Ltd. 6.6 332 4907%
Amtek Auto Ltd. 3.8 185.6 4783%
Praj Industries Ltd. 1.9 91 4687%
Pantaloon Retail (India) Ltd. 7.4 345.1 4544%
Havells India Ltd. 9.8 430 4306%
Motherson Sumi Systems Ltd. 3 125.1 4125%

Friday, January 15, 2010

Templeton's 16 investment rules

I read this in money control & thought of sharing with you guys...

SIR John Templeton, the founder of Templeton Funds was a multi-faceted personality, a legendary investor, fund manager and an astute philanthropist. He wrote 16 rules of investment success...

Rule 1: Begin with a prayer

Prayer helps you think clearly and make fewer mistakes. Meditation is known to reduce anxiety and stress, helping in better decision making.

Rule 2: Invest for maximum total real return

It is important to only consider the total real return i.e. the money you make in your investment lifetime after inflation and taxes. Many investors get carried away by short-term movements. They tend to ignore the long-term opportunities. Thus, it is wise to invest for total real returns.

Rule 3: Remain flexible and open-minded

Flexibility comes from being agile. Open-mindedness is learning from new ideas and perspectives. Many old-timers missed India's IT sector growth in the early 90s, which gave multi- bagger stocks like Infosys and Wipro. Cut to early 2005, many people were enamored with IT sector. They neglected the infrastructure and banking sectors, whose stocks multiplied within a couple of years. Hence it is important to be flexible and open-minded.

Rule 4: Invest, do not trade or speculate

Almost all successful people in the stock market are investors and not traders. They invest for long-term and are patient. There are many investors who have become millionaires solely on return of one stock in their portfolio over a decade. Sure they bought lot of other stocks which went nowhere but the one or two stocks that did well made all the difference. Traders think of the market as a casino where you play daily to win, investors think of markets as a long-term wealth building exercise.

Rule 5: Search for bargains

Just as we buy garments at discount sale, we need to buy and not sell stocks when markets are crashing. In October 2008, many high dividend yielding stocks were sold for meager amount. People who bought them have reaped huge profits.

Rule 6: Don't buy market trends or economic theories

Remember the India story told when the sensex was at 21,000 and markets dipped to 7,500 within a year. The boom gave way to gloom, economists and market experts were expecting a correction not a crash. Thus, you should not rely on economic theories and market trends while investing as they are told only after the event has occurred.

Rule 7: Diversify across assets and across markets, there is safety in numbers

Last year, when stocks dipped, gold and bond mutual funds thrived, an investor who had invested across all three assets would have got negative return in stocks but would have made good returns in bonds and gold. Thus, it is advisable not to put all eggs in one basket.

To spread risk, investments should be diversified across assets such as:

- Stocks / equity mutual funds
- Bonds/ bond mutual funds
- Gold/ gold exchange traded funds
- Real estate
- Foreign mutual funds
- Traditional assets such as fixed deposits and public provident funds

Investment opportunities come with risks. When markets are high, investors want 100 per cent equity exposure and forget the downside risk. When markets have crashed they want 100 per cent safety and ignore the upside potential.

Rule 8: Do your homework or hire experts who will do it for you

Some of us invest based on tips and rumors, that is speculating not investing. You should read and research all investment ideas well, take time to understand the upside and downside of each investment before buying. Or else, you must engage quality financial advisors before investing.

Rule 9: Aggressively monitor your investments

No investment is forever. Expect change and react to it. There are no permanent bull market and bear market.

Way back the BSE Sensex had bluechip companies like Scindia Steamship, Asian Cables, Crompton Greaves, Mukand Iron, and Premier Auto.

Today, these companies have become small or midcaps. Some are not even quoted. Indices and markets keep changing. Investors should be on guard always.

Rule 10: Don’t Panic


Many people panic and exit the market when there is a dip. It is better to sell before a crash not after. Panic and euphoria are the two facets of same investors. Both selling after a crash and buying after a huge rally make no sense.

Rule 11: Learn from your mistakes

The only way to avoid mistakes is not investing which is the biggest mistake of all. Those who didn't invest after losing money in 1994 crash wouldn't have made money in 1999 boom. Those who lost money and exited in 2000 would have missed one the best times to invest in India from 2002 - 2008.

Rule 12: Beating the markets is a difficult task

Even professional fund managers have tough time doing it. Hence, an investor should remember that getting above market returns year after year is difficult.

Rule 13: Buy low

So simple in concept, yet so difficult to practice. Humans tend to think in herds and not alone. Only a brave person would have invested in October last year when people were shell shocked and wanted to forget about stocks.

Rule 14: Anyone who has all the answers doesn’t even know the questions

Markets make even the most brilliant fund managers humble. We have seen big fund managers make wrong decisions. An investor who thinks he knows everything doesn't usually know anything. Success is a process of seeking out answers to newer questions.

Rule 15: There is no free lunch

Never invest based on a tip or rumor. Everyone talks about their profits however small and no one talks about their losses however big.

Rule 16: Do not be fearful or negative too often

There will be corrections and crashes in the markets, but markets do recover and reward diligent and patient investors. This century or next it's still buy low and sell high.

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Some Interesting Facts...

In yesterday's Business Line & Mint, I found some interesting facts. So thought of sharing with you guys...

You might be knowing about Mr. Deve Gowda's episode of using non parliamentary language that too in public/in front of media about Present C.M. of Karnataka...

Here is the part of that article which explains about INSULT, WITH CLASS!

Political insults and trading of scathing remarks is a mainstay of politics. And one cannot help comparing here the famous exchanges between British politicians, which had a touch of class. Take, for instance, the one between Winston Churchill and British MP Lady Astor, who told him: “If you were my husband, I'd give you poison”. Churchill's reply: “If you were my wife, I would drink it.”

Or, between George Bernard Shaw and Churchill. The former wrote to him: “I am enclosing two tickets to the first night of my new play; bring a friend.... if you have one.” To which Churchill replied: “Cannot possibly attend first night, will attend second... if there is one.”

But the best one is between a British MP and Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli; the former thundered to Disraeli: “Sir, you will either die on the gallows or of some unspeakable disease.”

Pat came the reply: “That depends, Sir, on whether I embrace your policies or your mistress.”

Now a days everywhere there is discussion going on about India overtaking China in coming days. I dont know when & how we are going to do that!

Here some facts about China, how it is developing its infrastructure, power & nuclear plants...

Here’s email from Bill Gross, who runs eSolar, a promising California solar thermal start-up: On Saturday, in Beijing, said Gross, he announced “the biggest solar thermal deal ever. It’s a 2 gigawatt, $5 billion (Rs22,900 crore) deal to build plants in China using our California-based technology. China is being even more aggressive than the US. We applied for a (US department of energy) loan for a 92MW project in New Mexico, and in less time than it took them to do stage 1 of the application review, China signs, approves, and is ready to begin construction this year on a 20 times bigger project!”

In the last year alone, so many new solar panel makers emerged in China that the price of solar power has fallen from roughly 59 cents a kilowatt hour to 16 cents, according to
The New York Times’ bureau chief here, Keith Bradsher. Meanwhile, China last week tested the fastest bullet train in the world—217 miles per hour, or 349km per hour—from Wuhan to Guangzhou. As Bradsher noted, China “has nearly finished the construction of a high-speed rail route from Beijing to Shanghai at a cost of $23.5 billion. Trains will cover the 700 mile route in just 5 hours, compared with 12 hours today. By comparison, Amtrak trains require at least 18 hours to travel a similar distance from New York to Chicago.”

China is also engaged in the world’s most rapid expansion of nuclear power. It is expected to build some 50 new nuclear reactors by 2020; the rest of the world combined might build 15.


Tenzin's Comment

hello,
nice to see you back bloggin....,

hope you continue and enlighten us on economics and technical charts.

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Market outlook



As I wrote in previous post about Markets in 2010, market giving off its gains for 150-200 points in Nifty. And that's the sign of consolidation.

By technical charts Nifty has resistance @ 5300 levels & has immediate support level @ 5180 & 5120 levels.

People who are trading on Nifty can take the long position once Nifty touches 5150 levels.

And some investment scripts for 2010...

1. Aban offshore
2. Axis Bank
3. Bharti Airtel
4. Chambal Fertilizer
5. Jaipraksh Associates & hydro
6. Kesoram Industries
7. NMDC
8. Neyveli Lignite
9. Rajesh Exports
10. Shree renuka sugars/Bajaj Hindustan
11. Adhunik metaliks
12. Suzlon
13. United Breweries & UB holding
14. Sesa goa
15. Rolta
16. Punj Llyod

Bottom line:

It doesn't mean that we have to all these above mentioned stocks in our portfolio, so please track the stocks & depending upon ur requirement & comfort ability you can have some of the above stocks...

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Matti's Comment about Adam Smith's Invisible Hand

hey mutnal
i cant resist myself from writing as you touched upon macro eco.

i read ur explanation.thougt has become more generic.
probably u should have discussed it in a more technical way.

say,
effect of price rise on supply,demand . shifting,movements of the curves
slopes of the curves etc.


anyways thanks for helping me exhume eco from my mind.

Interesting Reading Material...

Guys I read some interesting reading material from some papers & sites. So I am giving following links for the same, so that interested people can also can have a look at them...

In second half of 2007 when there was a bull run in India & crisis started in US that in India (in fact in our college also) there we discussed about coupling & decoupling theories. But some how I didn't agree with that point then also now also. Because I feel there an open economy no country can remain decoupled from the rest of the world.

I read an article from Mr. Jayanth Varma, Prof of IIMA in Financial Express. Which explains dependence on FIIs, FDIs & Liquidity in international financial markets.

In Indian Express there an article about Central Bankers.

There is an article about "10 things must do next decade by William Avery" in Financial Express.

Read this interesting article from "Mr. Ashok Desai in Telegraph"

Article about Emerging Countries & Recession

Is India going to overtake China in coming days? Now a days this discussion is going on everywhere. There an article related to this. Link.

In my previous I posted about GOLD, there is one more opinion about the same, read this.

Ajay Shah's opinion about Exchange Rate Regime.

Friday, January 8, 2010

Adam Smith's Invisible Hand

Yudi said...

Hi Naveen, thanks for updating us on the current Market Levels.

It would be great if you can post something about "Adam Smith's Invisible Hand" which I am currently reading in few of newspaper articles.

Thank you,
Udit

Hey Mehra,

Its good to know that people like you are still reading economics related stuff & interested in knowing the new stuff.

Now coming to Adam Smith's Invisible Hand, first I am providing some basic definitions from various sites & then I will try to elaborate ...

According to Investorwords.com...

Term used by Adam Smith to describe the natural force that guides free market capitalism through competition for scarce resources. According to Adam Smith, in a free market each participant will try to maximize self-interest, and the interaction of market participants, leading to exchange of goods and services, enables each participant to be better of than when simply producing for himself/herself. He further said that in a free market, no regulation of any type would be needed to ensure that the mutually beneficial exchange of goods and services took place, since this "invisible hand" would guide market participants to trade in the most mutually beneficial manner.

According to wikipedia.com...

In economics, the invisible hand, also known as the invisible hand of the market, the term economists use to describe the self-regulating nature of the marketplace. For Smith, the invisible hand was created by the conjunction of the forces of self-interest, competition, and supply and demand, which he noted as being capable of allocating resources in society.

The theory of the Invisible Hand states that if each consumer is allowed to choose freely what to buy and each producer is allowed to choose freely what to sell and how to produce it, the market will settle on a product distribution and prices that are beneficial to all the individual members of a community, and hence to the community as a whole. The reason for this is that self-interest drives actors to beneficial behavior

My Elaboration...

According to my understanding of the above definitions (& some other sites), I can best explain the Adam Smith's Invisible Hand by taking example Telecom sector & Mobiles. You all might be aware that when Tata Indicom's DoCoMo started per second billing, due to its competition all other players in segment started per second billing. Thats exactly explains the concept of SELF INTEREST, COMPETITION and SUPPLY & DEMAND.

And this again can be elaborated by taking the initial days of telecom revolution. When there was no competition; there were charges for incoming calls also but due to entrants of new players incoming calls became charge-less. And slowly it came to today's competition level.

And you can always take our stock market & normal day-today examples for any economic explanations. For example due to monsoon failure & agricultural reasons (revision of crops in subsequent years) Sugar Cane production has reduced drastically this time, so sugar prices soared to skyrocket & due to that sugar factory stocks are roaring to new highs. This is again a supply demand & self regulating market concept.

And one more best example is present crisis in US. Bush Administration decreased the interest rates to came out of the dot com bubble burst and because of that heavy supply of cheap money & demand for real estate lead to real estate boom due to which real estate prices started soaring. And at one point due to heavy supply of real estate players & failure in secularization which lead to sudden slack of money supply, pushed into following situation which we are aware of.

So I hope I tried my level best to explain the concept. And as usual always keep reading & keep commenting as your comments encourage me to study more & more share with you all people...


Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Markets in 2010

Tenzin Says:

Hello sir,
I hope your net connection is fine.. so whats your take on year 2010??? What can we expect? I have heard rumors that 2010 will see the markets going to all time highs....

Hi Tenzin, first I am glad that you are reading my blog even though I am not so regularly updating now a days!

Second is my internet connection working fine.

And third is Markets in 2010!!!

That's very easy & very difficult. And also how u r looking at it; fundamentally or technically!

Its very easy because of reasons like, if economic recovery sustains & continues northward direction then there is no 2nd thought that BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India & China) are bound to do well comparatively others.

And its very difficult because of fear of double dip recession possibility, exit policies in monetary & fiscal policies.

Anyway coming out of all these fundamentals, we now look at into my favorite part TECHNICAL ANALYSIS.


Now above chart is perfect example "REVERSE/INVERSE HEAD & SHOULDER"

As of today, Nifty is facing 5290/5300 as major resistance and which is also neckline in above graph. In March 2008 Nifty started coming down due to whole lot of mess in financial markets in US!

But I am sure we are going cross that psychological barrier of 5300 within 2-3 sessions. And there earning seasons also coming in couple of days. But I feel after/during this earnings session market may see some profit booking which may take market to 5180/5150 levels. That is the time, medium & long term investors should starting acquiring some mid cap stocks. Here I am particular about mid cap stock because during recovery mid cap stocks move multiple times of index due to high beta & large fall during market crash.

So coming to question whether markets can test/breach the previous highs? That's going to happen definitely but I feel its not going to happen in a straight or exponential way. Since if you observe from 4300 levels itself for every 200-250 up move will see a small profit booking. And particularly traders should be aware of their exit strategies always because major jerk/double dip recession/exit of green shots may take nifty to 4700 levels.

Bottom line:

So my advise is always look for an opportunity in mid cap & small cap stocks which can become large cap in coming days!!!