Monday, April 12, 2010

Sensex Ranges

Target/Resistance 1: 18200
Target/Resistance 2: 18500
Target/Resistance 3: 19000

Support 1: 17600
Support2: 16800
Support3: 1600

From quite few days I was giving Nifty ranges from technical point of view. That is because in our profession Nifty is more important than the Sensex because derivatives (Futures & Options) traded in NSE.

Anyway coming to Sensex ranges, I plotted 2-3 years graph month wise with RSI (Relative Strength Index) and some trend lines (by joining higher highs & lower lows).

So according to that, when Sensex touched 21000 in 2007/08 that time RSI was trading around 80 levels which is considered as overbought region. Whereas now RSI is trading below 70 levels which is also pretty equal to overbought region by comparing then & now macro economic conditions.

Now if you see last 3-4 months charts Sensex has tried twice to cross 17800 levels before present one. So according to that its a breakout from Double Top concept which is also an indication higher levels in sensex.

If you clearly observe the world markets & economy, overall positive news coming except some shocks like Dubai & Greece crisis. Foreign funds started flowing to developing countries like Brazil, India, China & etc & widely tracked US market Dow Jones is almost touching 11000 mark according Friday's closing.

And now coming to domestic number game, 4th quarter results are expected come to better because various reasons like Base effect, increase in employment/expenditure, confidence in people about their future & etc.

Anyway all these are fundamental concept, talking about Technical point of view: "What is more important than the why". So according to charts the range (resistance & support) for sensex is as mentioned above.

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