Thursday, July 15, 2010

Najeeb's comment

Najeeb IBA said...

i dont see any chance for incerse the sugar price in short to medium term,unless the deregulation of sugar sector price is allowed by the government

My response...

Ya are right. Sugar price always move in cyclical pattern. 3-4 quarters bullish & 1-2 quarters bearish. Already sugar corrected from last one quarter & I think it will continue for one more quarter. But if you see the estimates of sugar productivity including Brazil which is the leading sugar exporting country, will be less than average productivity. And according recent news, even major exporting countries are importing the sugar. And coming to India, I feel this time expected rain itself is less than last year. And being from agricultural family I know that, this time there will be definitely shortage/less productivity in sugarcane as we are already facing the heat rain god's anger!

Leave all this, Even though sugar prices have fallen from last 2-3 months & where as if you see the Sugar stocks have given the 30% - 40% return in last 2 months.

That you may call it as technical bounce also, as we call Dead Cat Bounce Back! But I don't think technical bounce will be of that much magnitude (30%-40%). So I think its good time accumulate sugar stocks.

And keep reading & keep commenting...

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