Saturday, April 16, 2011

India needs purchasing power rather than subsidies

Recently Tamil Nadu faced state elections and both the main parties were talking about 1 kilo rice for Rs. 1 and other subsidized food products. I have taken Tamil Nadu's example because of recent elections, otherwise subsidies are abundant everywhere in India.

What I wonder is, governments fix the minimum support price for the food article to support the farmers, buys it from the farmers for the support price and same governments sell them to its citizens in a subsidized prices like of Rs. 1. Its same for the oil and its by-products also. So who is going to take care of the deficit of these transactions and how long is it going to work on just blame-game?

India faced a severe Balance of Payment (BOP) crisis in 1991 due to higher fiscal deficit and some external shocks like oil crisis and wars. At that time India had forex reserve of 1 billion dollars which was sufficient to import for just one week. Since oil and wars were/are not in our control totally, no point to elaborate on those issues. But what Indian central and state governments could have controlled is the deficit problem. Due to socialistic era and combined with populist budgets like above mentioned ones (particularly started in southern and eastern states) caused irreversible deficit to the exchequer. And surprising fact is still we are following the same old route towards a possible BOP crisis even after seeing other countries taking development mantras.

Now, in this LPG (Liberalized, Privatized and Globalized) era, India's much publicized recent problems are PDS (Public Distribution System) and Inflation. Due to subsidies, majority of the PDS quantity is sold in the black market without letting the targeted person to claim it.

To avoid the PDS problem central government has started an ambitious project called Unique Identification Number (also called as Adhar) under the leadership of Mr. Nandan Nilekani. But the fundamental problem of "deficit" remains the same even after UID or Adhar project.

India aspires to overtake the China, over a period of next 25-30 years, but with the kind of policies is it possible? India's debt to GDP is more than 70% where-as China's is about 20%. India's foreign reserve is about 300 billion dollars where-as China's is more than 3 trillion dollars. According to recent IMF data available, China's GDP at PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) per capita is more than 35,000 dollars per year where-as India's is around 3,300, thats almost one tenth of China!

Governments should really think of improving the PPP- instead of subsidies. And PPP can be improved only if everybody gets regular jobs to contribute towards the GDP. Again jobs require education, different skill sets and more, which in turn can generate jobs. Governments should think about taking up projects like converting Narrow Gauge to Meter to Broad and single line to double to four line railway tracks, not just increase the trains. Why I am mentioning railway project is because projects like National Highway (by Vajpayee government) and railway track doubling are through out India and can generate lot of employment and at the same time can improve the infrastructure of the country.

1 comment: