Saturday, November 27, 2010

Bull market corrections

Yesterday when I read about Bull market corrections in one of the blog which I follow; I also thought of writing about it in my blog for my readers. In fact I wrote about Bull market corrections two times in my blog in August 2010. Click here 1, 2 for details...

First talking about bull market, the technical definition (according to Dow theory) of the bull market in simple terms is higher highs and higher lows. This means market will make new highs and bottoms after each corrections will be new lows without breaching previous correction's lows.

For your information I have collected some details from this present bull trend (you may call it as market also!) which started from March 2009. First one is above graph in I have shown 5 corrections. For each correction I have collected some more information which is as below...

Peak level Bottom level Correction(Absolute) Correction(Percentage)
4600 4000 600 13.04
5120 4580 540 10.55
5275 4725 550 10.43
5375 4820 555 10.33
6310 5750 560 8.87

If you see the above table & graph there are some resemblances in each corrections like

1. Each part of bull lasted fro 2 months
2. Following correction from each bull lasted for one month
3. Average correction in Nifty in absolute terms is in the range of 540-600 points
4. Each time Nifty faced correction of 10% to 13% at max
5. Each correction bottomed around either @ 100 day EMA or @ 200 day EMA
6. For each correction RSI had shown oversold point (touching level of 30) each time

Now coming to present correction, Nifty on closing basis started correcting from 6310 levels and closed on Friday at 5750 levels, that is of 560 points fall which is in the range of previous falls. But here there are some differences like

--> In percentage terms it is almost 9% percent, so couple of more percentage fall might be there for Nifty to bottom out and consolidate
--> If you see the RSI, still it is not in oversold zone, that is it is yet to touch 30 levels in the oscillator
--> 200 day EMA is @ 5523 and 100 day EMA is @ 5800 which is already broken on closing basis for 2 days. So I feel Nifty may bottom out and consolidate in the range of 5650 (considering global & country's news flow may not averse) which is another 100 points fall from present level and also 10% fall from the peak which will be in line with the previous falls and within the broad trend.

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