Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Nifty may bottom out around 5100/5200

As Nifty breached a major psychological level of 5400, (which most of the analysts, including me thought market would hold on), it made market participants to lower their respective new targets for it.

So I checked for Nifty daily, weekly and monthly charts to find out the trend lines and possible (!!!) support for the market in this relentless selling from big boys...

On daily charts, it can be seen that Nifty traded between 4900-5200 levels for almost an year from September 2009 to August 2010 till it broke out of the range due to biggest inflow of FIIs ever in the history of Indian markets (of $5 billion in a September month). So whenever Nifty corrected in that range it found support at 5200 and 5100 levels on intermediate basis. Another factor is, oversold zone in the RSI, i.e. below 30 levels is trading and it happened only 3 times in last 15-18 months.

On Weekly charts, two main things can be noticed... First is 100 EMA is at 5160 and second is trend line connecting the bottoms (whenever market corrected) is supporting the 100 EMA on Nifty. RSI on Weekly charts is about to touch the lowest level, the level at which RSI traded when Nifty was trading at 2500 levels.

On monthly charts, Nifty clearly formed double top formation around 6300 levels which is a trend reversal signal in technical theory. Around 5100/5200 this double top formation may form a neckline as it supported by 21 EMA, trend line and consolidation range are pointing to 5200 levels.

Bottom line:
And if you see the option data in NSE website, 5100 put option and 5400 call option have witnessed maximum change in the open interest for February series, indicating heavy selling/writing off of these options at these strike levels giving hint for a range for the market.

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