Monday, February 14, 2011

Pullback in Nifty is sustainable above 5520/5560

A pullback rally of more than 250 points in Nifty in 2 days is sustainable only if Nifty crosses over over 5520/5560 level and trades above that level. Otherwise it can be considered as dead cat bounce back.

When I checked Nifty daily chart for last one year I could make out the certain interesting findings like Nifty moved in a trading range for almost 8-9 months. As marked in the chart, from June, 2010 Nifty moved in a trading range like...

June to Aug -- Nifty range from 5200 to 5600 -- 400 Points consolidated rally
September -- Nifty range from 5600 to 6100 -- 500 Points sharp rally
Oct to Nov -- Nifty range from 6000 to 6350 -- 350 points consolidation
November -- Nifty range from 6000 to 5700 -- 300 points correction
Dec to Jan -- Nifty range from 5700 to 6200 -- 500 points consolidation
Jan to Feb -- Nifty range from 5700 to 5200 -- 500 points sharp correction

From above table of information we can decipher a simple conclusion that, a rally (400 points) is followed sharper-one (500 points) and then consolidation (350points) and a correction (300 points), small consolidation and then sharper-one (500 points correction).


So from above daily chart and weekly charts, I think we can expect one round of consolidation may happen before next leg of rally (above 5520/5560) or correction (below 5100 may take Nifty to 4800 as indicated in charts). That range of consolidation may be from trading of 5200 to 5600/5700 which is also of 400-500 points consolidation.



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