As usual when I was reading Mr. Ajay Shah's blog I found a very interesting article. So I thought of sharing with you people.
Last week when IIP data came, many people thought it was very good number but here is some different analysis where it is clearly differentiated from MoM over YoY.
This is very simple & very good article about Financial Planning or Personal Finance
About Gold, there is very good comparison between Gold & ETFs.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Sunday, December 20, 2009
Market Drifting Towards 4900
Market is already below 20 day exponential moving average (EMA) & breaching 50 day EMA, i.e. 4990-5000 level.And if you see the trend lines from July & March lows, both of them are indicating 4900 & 4880 levels.
Where as 100 day exponential moving is supporting at 4800 level, which I doubt market is going to touch in short term as there is no major negative news. But in January there is possibility of RBI intervention in interest rate policy due inflation pressure. And also there stochastic is in oversold zone.
So short term traders, I think should in PUT side or SHORT nifty.
Where as medium & long term investors should wait for right opportunity (around 4850-4900 level) & start acquiring some good stocks.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Irresponsible Moves From Exchanges
It all started with SEBI, allowing exchanges to extend the market hours for so called some reasons. After that, day before yesterday, Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) has decided to pre-pone market opening just by 10 minutes i.e. 9.45 AM from Friday, 18th December. And I dont know by extending market hours by just 10 minutes what BSE was expecting. The first mistake BSE did is hurridly extended market hours without the consent of NSE and market participants. 2nd mistake is it has given just 72 hours to implement this new market opening time. 3rd is whether they have consulted banking people for operation purpose of fund transfer & etc.
After seeing BSE move, NSE came up with the new timing for market opening @ 9 AM yesterday evening and that too from Friday i.e. on 18th December. Just 48 hours to implement new timing of one hour pre opening of market. And the statement from NSE was that they left with no option after BSE's decision to prepone the market hours opening time by 10 minutes.
After this, BSE also came with a statement that they will also start their operation @ 9 clock as NSE is starting its operation from 9 o clock.
But due to strong oppose from the brokerage industry & other market participants both NSE & BSE together came with a statement that the new timing will be implemented from 4th January. Is this the way Asia's oldest & Asia's one of the largest exchanges behave that too being in same country & controlled by same board.
So all this circus is to attract volumes that in turn to attract more revenue for exchanges & brokerage houses right? But all in this process there are many fundamentally or technically (whatever you say) flawed assumption. Like...
1. Reason for extension of market hours?
Is this to attract volumes from SGX (Singapore) Nifty? I doubt that, because first of all Singapore Straits starts its operation from 7 AM IST that is 2 hours before the proposed new timing. And I doubt that people who are trading SGX Nifty in Singapore will opt to India just because of timing, rather I think people are trading in SGX Nifty because of regulation differences between India & Singapore.
And in addition to that I feel that volume does not fully depend upon market hours. I mean if market is lackluster there will not be average volume also & if market is one sided or range bound or volatile, that day volume will be very high.
2. Or this move is align with world market's timing?
Again I wonder what about European & US markets then? European markets open around 12.30 to 1.30PM and US market around 8 PM.
3. Banking operation?
How can they expect banking & its operation to cooperate within this short span intimation of new timing for funds pay in & payout request.
4. Trader community
How can they expect to traders/dealers to cooperate with such a long trading timing from 9 to 3.30 i.e. six & half hours of trading, without a break. And it cant be done by shift wise also adviser/dealer only knows how his client trades & what positions he is holding.
5. And final thing, is longer market hours really needed?
After seeing BSE move, NSE came up with the new timing for market opening @ 9 AM yesterday evening and that too from Friday i.e. on 18th December. Just 48 hours to implement new timing of one hour pre opening of market. And the statement from NSE was that they left with no option after BSE's decision to prepone the market hours opening time by 10 minutes.
After this, BSE also came with a statement that they will also start their operation @ 9 clock as NSE is starting its operation from 9 o clock.
But due to strong oppose from the brokerage industry & other market participants both NSE & BSE together came with a statement that the new timing will be implemented from 4th January. Is this the way Asia's oldest & Asia's one of the largest exchanges behave that too being in same country & controlled by same board.
So all this circus is to attract volumes that in turn to attract more revenue for exchanges & brokerage houses right? But all in this process there are many fundamentally or technically (whatever you say) flawed assumption. Like...
1. Reason for extension of market hours?
Is this to attract volumes from SGX (Singapore) Nifty? I doubt that, because first of all Singapore Straits starts its operation from 7 AM IST that is 2 hours before the proposed new timing. And I doubt that people who are trading SGX Nifty in Singapore will opt to India just because of timing, rather I think people are trading in SGX Nifty because of regulation differences between India & Singapore.
And in addition to that I feel that volume does not fully depend upon market hours. I mean if market is lackluster there will not be average volume also & if market is one sided or range bound or volatile, that day volume will be very high.
2. Or this move is align with world market's timing?
Again I wonder what about European & US markets then? European markets open around 12.30 to 1.30PM and US market around 8 PM.
3. Banking operation?
How can they expect banking & its operation to cooperate within this short span intimation of new timing for funds pay in & payout request.
4. Trader community
How can they expect to traders/dealers to cooperate with such a long trading timing from 9 to 3.30 i.e. six & half hours of trading, without a break. And it cant be done by shift wise also adviser/dealer only knows how his client trades & what positions he is holding.
5. And final thing, is longer market hours really needed?
Sunday, December 13, 2009
I am back!!!
Yes guys I am back. I temporarily stopped posting, due to net problem. Now I got BSNL broadband I hope I resume my work as usual.
If you remember, I posted my last post in October 27th, after that I couldn't post anything due to above mentioned problem. Now you can ask is it takes almost 40-45 days to get new internet connection in a Metro like Bangalore! In fact I applied for BSNL broadband on 24th October if I am not wrong. And I got connection of phone line connection exactly one month of my registration, i.e. 24 of November. And in between I have been visiting local BSNL office on every weekend & REQUEST them for fast processing. And ultimately I have to bribe them(or in other words they demanded bribe) to get just the phone line connection, that too not working!
After all this they again took one week to activate my phone line & after week of that I got internet login & password to browse.
I wrote all this because I wanted to express my frustration & the way government offices work in these highly competitative environment. In one side, whole telecom industry feeling the heat of rate war between the rivals & BSNL is functioning like this. And when Central Government wanted to Divest/Disinvest part of its ownership, BSNL employees opposed for that!
Other competitors like Airtel, Tata Indicom & etc give service whenever, wherever we want that too immediately & with excellent cooperation. Here in BSNL office every office boy or clerk also acts as self crowned kings & leave about officers. So in this highly competative & customer service oriented era how the BSNL is going to maintain its market share. Already one major government owned company & which has experienced monopoly almost for 4 decades, i.e. LIC is loosing its market share very fast to its rival companies.
Anyway I wanted put forward my point of view, so I wrote it. So lets come to back our as usual topics like Stock market, Inflation, Economics & etc.
From last two to three months market is trading in range bound, i.e. Nifty is in the range of 4850 to 5180 broadly. One school of thought is market is consolidating before initiating another bull rally & other school of thought is market has rallied enough leaving behind the fundamentals of the economy. But whatever may be the analysts are saying market has its own causes & effects in LONG TERM!
And coming to Inflation, food inflation is going out of control & almost touched 20% because demand supply gap.
In addition to that IIP for October month is 10% which may not be very attractive number compared to last year BASE for same month, but all signals are leading towards probable RBI policy intervention.
And there are many more stuffs to write, I will do that in coming sessions...
If you remember, I posted my last post in October 27th, after that I couldn't post anything due to above mentioned problem. Now you can ask is it takes almost 40-45 days to get new internet connection in a Metro like Bangalore! In fact I applied for BSNL broadband on 24th October if I am not wrong. And I got connection of phone line connection exactly one month of my registration, i.e. 24 of November. And in between I have been visiting local BSNL office on every weekend & REQUEST them for fast processing. And ultimately I have to bribe them(or in other words they demanded bribe) to get just the phone line connection, that too not working!
After all this they again took one week to activate my phone line & after week of that I got internet login & password to browse.
I wrote all this because I wanted to express my frustration & the way government offices work in these highly competitative environment. In one side, whole telecom industry feeling the heat of rate war between the rivals & BSNL is functioning like this. And when Central Government wanted to Divest/Disinvest part of its ownership, BSNL employees opposed for that!
Other competitors like Airtel, Tata Indicom & etc give service whenever, wherever we want that too immediately & with excellent cooperation. Here in BSNL office every office boy or clerk also acts as self crowned kings & leave about officers. So in this highly competative & customer service oriented era how the BSNL is going to maintain its market share. Already one major government owned company & which has experienced monopoly almost for 4 decades, i.e. LIC is loosing its market share very fast to its rival companies.
Anyway I wanted put forward my point of view, so I wrote it. So lets come to back our as usual topics like Stock market, Inflation, Economics & etc.
From last two to three months market is trading in range bound, i.e. Nifty is in the range of 4850 to 5180 broadly. One school of thought is market is consolidating before initiating another bull rally & other school of thought is market has rallied enough leaving behind the fundamentals of the economy. But whatever may be the analysts are saying market has its own causes & effects in LONG TERM!
And coming to Inflation, food inflation is going out of control & almost touched 20% because demand supply gap.
In addition to that IIP for October month is 10% which may not be very attractive number compared to last year BASE for same month, but all signals are leading towards probable RBI policy intervention.
And there are many more stuffs to write, I will do that in coming sessions...
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