Narayana Murthy's farewell letter

Click here to read full article.

An open letter to my readers

Hi Guys,

From now onwards, I may not be able to express my views on financial markets, economy and others, where in mass-interest exist. So for time being, I will not post my views "publicly" due to some "professional issues", which I am trying to negotiate and find alternatives. Thats why I have not posted anything from last one week, as discussions/negotiations were on and I was very upset as the proceedings went on! Still I am waiting for final decision, and lets hope for the best! Till then I thought, I can arrange for "private-mailing", by group-mailing system. So interested readers can reply to this post with your email ids.

Keep reading...

Thanks & Regards
Naveen Mutnal

World Cup: Tough match/es, executed calmly

First of all let me congratulate the "MEN IN BLUE" for regaining the glory of 1983 by winning the 2011 World cup, that too after 3 finals not 1!

Why I feel 3 finals, is because the last three matches India played were high pressure matches with Mighty Australians, Arch rivals Pakistan and the final match with Srilankans. Quarter-final match was against last 3 cup winners, Australians was truly "final before seminal". And the match with the Pakistan in the World cup, in India is always a high pressure match that too in semi finals is "Finals before Finals". And the ultimate match finals against last World cup runners up Srilankans. I will not go into the details of the individual matches, but will talk about the the "Dhoni Devils" in coming parts.

To be frank before the tournament, I never thought (even tough wanted I wanted them to win) they will win the World cup. And I have (or had) my own reasons for like our fast bowling (apart from Zaheer Khan), lack of wicket taking spin bowlers, low experienced middle order and etc. In fact in 2003 I really thought India might have had a real chance to win because of the team combination we had. The star studded batting line up like the Sachin Tendulkar, firing Sehwag, captain Sourav Ganguly, the wall Rahul Dravid, Mysore express Srinath, young Zaheer Khan and many others. But I guess, March 23, 2003 was not threir day!

But that is history now and I am happy to be wrong in this World cup. What I really feel about this team is the ease with which they take every match and calm execution without bothering about the pressure, the high attention and expectation (media created hype! Some times I wonder whether the 1983 World cup winners got this much hype or not even after the win so much so that these guys got before the start of the tournament), hosting pressure and so much. But each and every team player believed in themselves, never give up attitude, team performance and lead by a great gambling and risk taking captain won the World cup for us.

Starting from believing in not in form player Yuvraj Singh, who would ever thought he will be the match winning player almost all matches.

Selecting Virat Kohli in playing 11 against Suresh Raina for the crucial place no. 3rd/4th place

Suresh Raina fielding almost more than 100 overs even before he actually started playing in main 11.

Replacing Yusuf Pathan with Suresh Raina for the crucial stage of the tournament.

Then picking R Ashwin for playing 11 against Australia and giving him new ball with Zaheer Khan.

Then dropping Ashwin (who was quite successful against mighty Australians) for Nehra against Pakistan for semifinals.

Sehwag attacking Pakistan's main and successful bowler Umar Gul in his first spell demotivating their strength.

Sachin's match winning knock even though he was dropped 4 times by Pakistan players.

Raina's crucial 36 runs in the slog overs with tail enders with Pakistan

Picking Sreeshanth in place in place of injured Nehra against Ashwin with better players of the spinners, the Srilankans.

The kind of fielding temperament shown by young Raina, Kohli, Yuvraj and even Tendulkar were exceptional in the final match. Off-side was fully blocked by these people for Srilankans.

Virat Kohli and Gautham Gambhir's partnership after the crucial initial blow of 2 wickets of Sehwag and Sachin. Witout taking risks and ticking the score board with singles and doubles and maintaining required runrate below 6 was the crucial in yesterday's match.

Dhoni's entry after Kohli's exit by promoting himself above Yuvraj (who is in really good form) keeping in mind right-left combination for linkan off-spin attack. And also covering Yuvraj (whose backlift is high and suffered set back against Pakistan for a quick and surprise yorker) from Malinga's yorkers for finishing the match if necessity arises.

And again taking singles and doubles without much risk by rotating the strike and building tension in Lankan camp by not loosing further wicket was turning point of the match.

And more over each player backed every other player in almost all occasions and they stood together from Fielding, Bowling, Batting and even while "LIFTING THE CUP"

Mint Article:The decade in banking

Last week I read an article in mint, so thought of sharing some interesting facts... Click here for full article...

• The Indian banking system could remain insulated from the global credit crunch and its impact in the wake of the fall of US investment bank Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. on the strength of its high capital-to-assets ratio and low bad assets.
• The collective net profit of the industry was Rs7,100 crore in 2001. By 2010, it had risen eight times to Rs57,109 crore.
• Bad assets, as a percentage of loans, were 6.83% in 2001. This has come down to 1%.
• The net worth of the industry—capital plus reserves—during this period has risen from Rs57,146 crore to Rs3.56 trillion.
• The ratio of operating cost to total assets has come down from 2.68% to 1.87% and return on assets rose from 0.57% to 1.05% between 2001 and 2010, highlighting the industry’s efficiency.
• In 1991, the year India moved ahead with a process that it had begun in the mid-1980s and embraced economic liberalization, the loan outstanding in the industry was Rs1.24 trillion, about 24% of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP). By 2000, it rose to Rs4.6 trillion, but as a percentage of GDP still remained about 25.75%. In the last decade, the loan book grew to Rs32.4 trillion, a little over 55% of India’s GDP.
• The overall number of branches has gone up from 61,724 in 1991 to 67,061 in 2000 and 81,802 in 2009 (the latest data available), but the average population serviced by one bank branch has dropped only marginally, from 15,000 in 1991 to 14,000 currently.
• In 1991, there were 35,134 rural branches, accounting for close to 57% of the total national branch network. In 2000, this number dropped to 32,673 and 48.7% of the branch network. By 2009, it dropped further to 31,549 and 38.6%. During this time, branches in metros rose from 6,191 to 8,957, and finally, to 14,761 (from 10% to 13.4% to 18%).
• In 1991, there were a little over 100 million deposit accounts in rural India— 31% of the total. By 2000, their number rose to about 126 million, but the market share slipped marginally to 30%. In 2009, the number rose to about 199 million, but as a percentage of total number of accounts, it remained the same—30%—as the overall number of deposit accounts rose from 355 million in 1991 to 662 million in 2009. The share of metros (in terms of accounts), however, rose from 19% in 1991 to 20% in 2000 and 23% in 2009.
• In 1991, there were about 32 million loan accounts in rural India—52% of total accounts. By 2000, this dropped to 25 million and 46%. In 2009, the number rose to 34 million, but as a percentage of total number of accounts it slipped further to 31%. In these two decades, the share of metros rose from 6% to 33%. In terms of money raised through these accounts, rural India’s share slipped from 21% in 1991 to 13% in 2000 and 11% in 2009, while share of metros rose from 40% to 56% and 60%, respectively.

Black Monday in Karnataka's politics

Monday was worst day in Indian politics history. In fact its not only Monday, but from last 10-15 days the things happened here in Karnataka, never happened in Indian history I think. Here one thing I want to clear that I am not taking anybody's side even though I am from a political background family. From the day BJP government came to power, the crisis started within the BJP party and outside also. Three times government came under threat due to these crises within 2.5 years.

But this present one is worst in the history Indian politics in terms of

1. HORSE TRADING...
2. CHANGING OPINIONS OF MLA...
3. KIND OF MONEY SPENT ON RESORTS/TRAVELING...
4. NON-PARLIAMENTARY LANGUAGE USED ON MONDAY/OTHER DAYS...
5. THINGS HAPPENED IN VIDHANA SOUDHA...
6. BEHAVIOR OF OPPOSITION LEADERS WITH POLICE COMMISSIONER MR. SHANKAR BIDARI.

In Indian politics, I have never seen/heard of horse trading of MLAs for 35 crores - 50 crores even more (to each MLAs) according to some unbelievable source.

And coming to changing their opinions, most of the present MLAs, I think they don't have moral ground on which they fight election or their party fights. They are changing colors faster than chameleon, for the sake of power. They are behaving like, there no tomorrow and want to die in power!

Now talking about the money spent on resorts/their traveling & etc who is paying for all these. How can a SEEDHA SADHA politician/party can afford this kind lavish spending for group of horses(MLAs).

Monday morning when I was getting ready to office I was watching the final day drama. The way MLAs were behaving/using slangs to their colleagues and poor Marshals, I never felt they are representing Karnataka people & elected by people like me. Now I am ashamed that I voted for one of them. I think because of this kind behavior only makes most of us not to vote. One MLA went ahead of all this tore his shirt & was standing on the table in VIDHANA SOUDHA. What an example they are setting, at least they should think of their children in their home will be watching TV!

Bottom line:

Couple of the senior MLAs who spent their more than half of their life in politics were seen KICKING ONE OF VIDHANA SOUDHA'S DOORS, where as it is written as GOVERNMENT WORK IS GOD'S WORK! on front portion of VIDHANA SOUDHA.

Yes! COMMON MAN is getting benefits from FASTEST GROWING economy

Guys this month beginning we had a discussion about the above mentioned topic. And I kept the topic for open discussion, which never happened after couple of responses from Uday & Richa! never mind. Today I read an article in Sunday Times of India by Swaminathan Aiyar.
I advise all my readers to go through that article. For those who cant, for them I am presenting some of the numbers from the article here.

The below numbers from a survey covered all dalit households in two blocks in UP, one in the relatively prosperous west (Khurja) and one in the backward east (Bilariaganj), between 1990 and 2008.

• Pucca houses rose from 18.1% to 64.4% in the east & from 38.4% to 94.6% in the west.
• TV ownership improved from virtually zero to 22.2% and 45% respectively.
• Cellphone ownership increased from almost nothing to 36.3% and 32.5% respectively.
• Fan ownership, curbed by electricity shortages, rose to 36.7% and 61.4% respectively.
• Bicycle ownership up from 46.6% to 84.1% in the east and from 37.7 to 83.7% in the west.
• Ownership of two-wheelers improved from almost zero to 7.6% and 12.3% respectively.
• In times of distress, dalits historically mortgaged jewelery to upper caste lenders. The proportion that does so has dropped from 75.8% to 29.3% in the east and from 64.6% to 21.2% in the west.
• The proportion eating roti-chutney for lunch, socially viewed as low-class food, has fallen from 82% to just 2% and 9% in the two zones.
• The proportion of kids eating the previous night’s leftovers plummeted from 95.9% to just 16.2% in the east.
  
• The proportion eating broken rice fell from 54% to 2.6% in the east, and from 22.7% to 1.1% in the west.
• Per capita availability of dal in India has been falling. So it’s heartening that dalits consuming dal are up from 31% to 90% in the east, and from 60.1% to 96.9% in the west. This may be one cause for rising dal prices.
• Traditionally, dalits were mainly agricultural labourers. In the reform era, they have diversified into non-traditional work. The dalit proportion benefiting from migrant relatives is up from 14% to 50.5% in the east, and from 6.1% to 28.6% in the west.
• The proportion running their own business is up from 4.2% to 11% in the east and from 6% to 36.7% in the west.
• The proportion in agricultural labour has plummeted from 76% to 45.6% in the east and from 46.1 to just 20.5% in the west.
• Per capita income is growing almost 10 times faster than in the Nehru-Indira era, and dalits are sharing the new prosperity.

Here one common thing you can notice in all above mentioned bullet points and that is private sector participation and competitiveness between them. For example from first bullet point, you can notice TV, Cell phone, Fan, Bicycle, Motor cycle, Mortgage (Banking services), Availability of non agricultural avenues are improving common man's status directly and indirectly.

So all this happened last 10-15 years helped by LPG (Liberalization, Privatization & Privatization) which is initiated by then Government in 1992 (Manmohan Singh) & 1997 (P Chidambaram)

The point is, after 1997 we haven't seen any revolutionary reform from the government due to various reasons. So when we are thinking about achieving double digit GDP growth next decade, we cant be complacent thinking history & past reforms, we need to take certain bold steps.

And once government does its part then comes turn of Private sector & common man of contributing to their share.

In today's same STOI, I read an article from Chetan Bhagat. Its also good article, you can have look at it also...

Comments for previous posting & My Response

uday said...

The irony is - Inspite of India being a Agricultural country, inspite of the fact that India is believed to 'Live in the villages' - these idiot rural indian masses are at the mercy of urban India. Why should they need any government to solve their problems. All the intelligent and capable masses from rural india migrate to metro with greed of big salaries - only waste bodies stay back. Most rural population is good for nothing people thinking that it is responsibility of the Indian govt to take care of them.

September 8, 2010 2:19 PM

Richa said...

Very true, Naveen. These are words of common man....U Me n everyone..
BUT blaming govt. is it always correct? What are we doing to improve things?
Questions? May be we cant do anything, but why not one amongst youth gets into politics to do gud for the NATION....Again a question???

My Response:

First I would like to thank Uday & Richa for reading the article and taking trouble to comment on that. Now coming to comments part I don't buy some of the comments of Uday & Richa, of course they may be correct in their own way.

Because there are structural issues which only government can handle. For example we are now enjoying the benefit of LPG (Liberalization, Privatization & Globalization) which is again started by then government in 1992 by Mr. Manmohan Singh. So government should take the initiative to do the things better, allow the private players in some of the specific areas step by step to participate & then we can argue that government cant do everything.

Now take the following examples...

Inflation

When world is at the door step possibility of double recession/slowdown/deflation, we Indians are facing the problem of Inflation. Food Inflation is the main culprit in that. And main problem for this is PDS (Public Distribution System) is so pathetic, corrupted & license raj.

For example government is supplying Rice @ Rs. 2 to BPL through PDS. But more than 50% of it is not reaching the targeted people, because middle men are selling same Rice in open market for market rate approximately to Rs. 20. This is just one angle for Inflation & other angle is preservation of food articles, even Supreme Court has given suggestion government that instead of wasting them & distribute to poor people.

In places like Delhi, more than 40% of water & 35% of power leakage & theft is happening, which is Capital of country & where in now we are conducting Commonwealth Games whose preparations are another disaster.

These are just a simple examples how the systems in place are working.

Today, I read an article where in Infosys Mentor Mr. Narayan Murthy is talking about India's problems.

I request to all my readers to please read that article here...

Some important points, he mentioned are as follows...

--> Even 63 years after Independence, 35 crore (350 million) Indians can't read and write.

--> Twenty-five crore (250 million) people do not have access to safe drinking water.

--> While 75 crore (750 million) have no access to sanitation facilities, Murthy said.

--> The country has the largest mass of malnourished children, and 35 per cent of (total production of) grains are allowed to rot.

--> India has an installed electricity generation capacity of 145 gigawatts but only 84 gigawatts are available, which is "sadly a shame

--> Lot of it is due to poor (public) governance. There is no doubt about it. Unfortunately, our public governance is inadequate. Whatever our public governance has touched has not made as good a progress as private governance has. While all of private governance may not be good, private governance institutions have by and large done better because of competition, entry of multinational companies and the need to compete at the global level.

And I read one more article in rediff about global competitiveness of different countries in different segments. And some important points in that are...

--> It ranks 104th in the health and primary education pillar, with high rates of communicable diseases and high infant mortality. Indeed, life expectancy in India is 10 years shorter than in Brazil and China.

--> Infrastructure (86th) is in need of upgrade, especially with respect to quality of roads, ports, and the electricity supply, with India falling 10 places in this area this year.

--> Labour markets are also in need of greater efficiency and flexibility (92nd).

--> And overall India's rank 51st

Bottm line:
Topic is open for discussion...

Does COMMON MAN getting any benefit from so called FASTEST growing economy!!!

This is the thought whenever I come home & meet people here in home town. In fact I feel they are hopeless about our country's future! This is not my one time experience, last 2-3 times when I came here & met different people from different background (Age, Income & Family background). I am mentioning all these age, income & family background because I cant draw a conclusion from any one person's thinking from his backgrounds.

So last time when I was in home, I met one of my uncle & from the discussion we had, I thought his thinking is limited so no need to give any attention. But this time when I met one my grandfather & some other people I had same kind of discussion. So from this discussion I am drawing the above statement as conclusion...

In Bangalore or for that matter in Metros we think, we as a country are progressing after seeing so many things like GDP numbers, Infrastructure (presently however may be pathetic it is!),
Private Jobs & their Income level, Stock market, English media (Paper & TV) articles & analysis (because regional TVs & Papers usually don't cover this kind of news because here also I can draw same conclusion that they don't serve this kind because their target audience are not at all bothered about all the above mentioned things). When I start discussing all these above mentioned things with my high funda data, they simply don't agree with me because they have their own concern in some of the below mentioned things like...

1. Inflation

When they say Inflation, they are not aware & worried about the percentage point. Because I also feel that Inflation measurement itself is in so much controversy, so real inflation numbers GOD ONLY KNOWS! So here when they talk about price hike not inflation (because they are not even aware that in simple terms price hike itself is inflation). Their concern is price of almost everything including food articles (even though they are producing some of these & not getting the benefit due to middle man) is increasing much faster as compared their income. Their point of argument is now everything has become purely business & above their reach, be it agriculture, health, education & etc.

2. Government Working Style/Administrative Hurdles

On this they give one whole night lecture & I can also write lot of things. But bottom line will be same, government is not doing adequate what it is supposed do for common man. Be it from giving sufficient facilities (in one article from Swaminthan's I read, government's Rs. 1 worth of facility to common man is costing around Rs. 3.5 crores!!! I was shocked to read this), corruption, bureaucracy, fighting for power, no intentions at all for development & etc.

3. Legal Issues

As we all know how fast we are getting judgments from judiciary system for all variety of cases be it red handed captured terrorist case, be it simple accident cases, domestic violence cases, be it a cop molesting a woman/girl, be it murder case of bar girl by influence people & etc. And even if you get verdict from court also there will always be higher court to re-appeal your case. And surprisingly if you get verdict from highest court also people will go for President's mercy petition! In addition to all these, there are people called as human rights organizations...

4. Other issues like

--> Inter state issues regarding territory, river & dams building to those rivers, current sharing, language, non residents of their state issue & etc.
--> Basic infrastructure needed in rural areas like connectivity in terms of roads & schools, health related medical centers @ etc
--> Naxalism
--> Terrorism
--> Caste ism & related problems
--> Strikes & etc


So Bottom line is:
Anybody's guess!!!

Thanks to my friends & blog!!!

Hi guys,

I started my this blog because, some of my friends forced me to share market updates & other economic activities on common platform. So I started my blog & initially it was meant for some of my close friends only. But after some time I also got interest in updating it regularly & readers also increased. So it has become my habit from hobby...

Today I FEEL because of my this blog, I got an offer from Thomson Reuters for the role of

"News Analyst in Reuters Editorials Dept."

So thanks to all my friends who encouraged me, given feedback/comments & etc.

So keep reading, commenting & encouraging.

Najeeb's comment

Najeeb IBA said...

i dont see any chance for incerse the sugar price in short to medium term,unless the deregulation of sugar sector price is allowed by the government

My response...

Ya are right. Sugar price always move in cyclical pattern. 3-4 quarters bullish & 1-2 quarters bearish. Already sugar corrected from last one quarter & I think it will continue for one more quarter. But if you see the estimates of sugar productivity including Brazil which is the leading sugar exporting country, will be less than average productivity. And according recent news, even major exporting countries are importing the sugar. And coming to India, I feel this time expected rain itself is less than last year. And being from agricultural family I know that, this time there will be definitely shortage/less productivity in sugarcane as we are already facing the heat rain god's anger!

Leave all this, Even though sugar prices have fallen from last 2-3 months & where as if you see the Sugar stocks have given the 30% - 40% return in last 2 months.

That you may call it as technical bounce also, as we call Dead Cat Bounce Back! But I don't think technical bounce will be of that much magnitude (30%-40%). So I think its good time accumulate sugar stocks.

And keep reading & keep commenting...

Templeton's 16 investment rules

I read this in money control & thought of sharing with you guys...

SIR John Templeton, the founder of Templeton Funds was a multi-faceted personality, a legendary investor, fund manager and an astute philanthropist. He wrote 16 rules of investment success...

Rule 1: Begin with a prayer

Prayer helps you think clearly and make fewer mistakes. Meditation is known to reduce anxiety and stress, helping in better decision making.

Rule 2: Invest for maximum total real return

It is important to only consider the total real return i.e. the money you make in your investment lifetime after inflation and taxes. Many investors get carried away by short-term movements. They tend to ignore the long-term opportunities. Thus, it is wise to invest for total real returns.

Rule 3: Remain flexible and open-minded

Flexibility comes from being agile. Open-mindedness is learning from new ideas and perspectives. Many old-timers missed India's IT sector growth in the early 90s, which gave multi- bagger stocks like Infosys and Wipro. Cut to early 2005, many people were enamored with IT sector. They neglected the infrastructure and banking sectors, whose stocks multiplied within a couple of years. Hence it is important to be flexible and open-minded.

Rule 4: Invest, do not trade or speculate

Almost all successful people in the stock market are investors and not traders. They invest for long-term and are patient. There are many investors who have become millionaires solely on return of one stock in their portfolio over a decade. Sure they bought lot of other stocks which went nowhere but the one or two stocks that did well made all the difference. Traders think of the market as a casino where you play daily to win, investors think of markets as a long-term wealth building exercise.

Rule 5: Search for bargains

Just as we buy garments at discount sale, we need to buy and not sell stocks when markets are crashing. In October 2008, many high dividend yielding stocks were sold for meager amount. People who bought them have reaped huge profits.

Rule 6: Don't buy market trends or economic theories

Remember the India story told when the sensex was at 21,000 and markets dipped to 7,500 within a year. The boom gave way to gloom, economists and market experts were expecting a correction not a crash. Thus, you should not rely on economic theories and market trends while investing as they are told only after the event has occurred.

Rule 7: Diversify across assets and across markets, there is safety in numbers

Last year, when stocks dipped, gold and bond mutual funds thrived, an investor who had invested across all three assets would have got negative return in stocks but would have made good returns in bonds and gold. Thus, it is advisable not to put all eggs in one basket.

To spread risk, investments should be diversified across assets such as:

- Stocks / equity mutual funds
- Bonds/ bond mutual funds
- Gold/ gold exchange traded funds
- Real estate
- Foreign mutual funds
- Traditional assets such as fixed deposits and public provident funds

Investment opportunities come with risks. When markets are high, investors want 100 per cent equity exposure and forget the downside risk. When markets have crashed they want 100 per cent safety and ignore the upside potential.

Rule 8: Do your homework or hire experts who will do it for you

Some of us invest based on tips and rumors, that is speculating not investing. You should read and research all investment ideas well, take time to understand the upside and downside of each investment before buying. Or else, you must engage quality financial advisors before investing.

Rule 9: Aggressively monitor your investments

No investment is forever. Expect change and react to it. There are no permanent bull market and bear market.

Way back the BSE Sensex had bluechip companies like Scindia Steamship, Asian Cables, Crompton Greaves, Mukand Iron, and Premier Auto.

Today, these companies have become small or midcaps. Some are not even quoted. Indices and markets keep changing. Investors should be on guard always.

Rule 10: Don’t Panic

Many people panic and exit the market when there is a dip. It is better to sell before a crash not after. Panic and euphoria are the two facets of same investors. Both selling after a crash and buying after a huge rally make no sense.

Rule 11: Learn from your mistakes

The only way to avoid mistakes is not investing which is the biggest mistake of all. Those who didn't invest after losing money in 1994 crash wouldn't have made money in 1999 boom. Those who lost money and exited in 2000 would have missed one the best times to invest in India from 2002 - 2008.

Rule 12: Beating the markets is a difficult task

Even professional fund managers have tough time doing it. Hence, an investor should remember that getting above market returns year after year is difficult.

Rule 13: Buy low

So simple in concept, yet so difficult to practice. Humans tend to think in herds and not alone. Only a brave person would have invested in October last year when people were shell shocked and wanted to forget about stocks.

Rule 14: Anyone who has all the answers doesn’t even know the questions

Markets make even the most brilliant fund managers humble. We have seen big fund managers make wrong decisions. An investor who thinks he knows everything doesn't usually know anything. Success is a process of seeking out answers to newer questions.

Rule 15: There is no free lunch

Never invest based on a tip or rumor. Everyone talks about their profits however small and no one talks about their losses however big.

Rule 16: Do not be fearful or negative too often

There will be corrections and crashes in the markets, but markets do recover and reward diligent and patient investors. This century or next it's still buy low and sell high.

Some Interesting Facts...

In yesterday's Business Line & Mint, I found some interesting facts. So thought of sharing with you guys...

You might be knowing about Mr. Deve Gowda's episode of using non parliamentary language that too in public/in front of media about Present C.M. of Karnataka...

Here is the part of that article which explains about INSULT, WITH CLASS!

Political insults and trading of scathing remarks is a mainstay of politics. And one cannot help comparing here the famous exchanges between British politicians, which had a touch of class. Take, for instance, the one between Winston Churchill and British MP Lady Astor, who told him: “If you were my husband, I'd give you poison”. Churchill's reply: “If you were my wife, I would drink it.”

Or, between George Bernard Shaw and Churchill. The former wrote to him: “I am enclosing two tickets to the first night of my new play; bring a friend.... if you have one.” To which Churchill replied: “Cannot possibly attend first night, will attend second... if there is one.”

But the best one is between a British MP and Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli; the former thundered to Disraeli: “Sir, you will either die on the gallows or of some unspeakable disease.”

Pat came the reply: “That depends, Sir, on whether I embrace your policies or your mistress.”

Now a days everywhere there is discussion going on about India overtaking China in coming days. I dont know when & how we are going to do that!

Here some facts about China, how it is developing its infrastructure, power & nuclear plants...

Here’s email from Bill Gross, who runs eSolar, a promising California solar thermal start-up: On Saturday, in Beijing, said Gross, he announced “the biggest solar thermal deal ever. It’s a 2 gigawatt, $5 billion (Rs22,900 crore) deal to build plants in China using our California-based technology. China is being even more aggressive than the US. We applied for a (US department of energy) loan for a 92MW project in New Mexico, and in less time than it took them to do stage 1 of the application review, China signs, approves, and is ready to begin construction this year on a 20 times bigger project!”

In the last year alone, so many new solar panel makers emerged in China that the price of solar power has fallen from roughly 59 cents a kilowatt hour to 16 cents, according to The New York Times’ bureau chief here, Keith Bradsher. Meanwhile, China last week tested the fastest bullet train in the world—217 miles per hour, or 349km per hour—from Wuhan to Guangzhou. As Bradsher noted, China “has nearly finished the construction of a high-speed rail route from Beijing to Shanghai at a cost of $23.5 billion. Trains will cover the 700 mile route in just 5 hours, compared with 12 hours today. By comparison, Amtrak trains require at least 18 hours to travel a similar distance from New York to Chicago.”

China is also engaged in the world’s most rapid expansion of nuclear power. It is expected to build some 50 new nuclear reactors by 2020; the rest of the world combined might build 15.

Interesting Reading Material...

Guys I read some interesting reading material from some papers & sites. So I am giving following links for the same, so that interested people can also can have a look at them...

In second half of 2007 when there was a bull run in India & crisis started in US that in India (in fact in our college also) there we discussed about coupling & decoupling theories. But some how I didn't agree with that point then also now also. Because I feel there an open economy no country can remain decoupled from the rest of the world.

I read an article from Mr. Jayanth Varma, Prof of IIMA in Financial Express. Which explains dependence on FIIs, FDIs & Liquidity in international financial markets.

In Indian Express there an article about Central Bankers.

There is an article about "10 things must do next decade by William Avery" in Financial Express.

Read this interesting article from "Mr. Ashok Desai in Telegraph"

Article about Emerging Countries & Recession

Is India going to overtake China in coming days? Now a days this discussion is going on everywhere. There an article related to this. Link.

In my previous I posted about GOLD, there is one more opinion about the same, read this.

Ajay Shah's opinion about Exchange Rate Regime.

Interesting Reading Material

As usual when I was reading Mr. Ajay Shah's blog I found a very interesting article. So I thought of sharing with you people.

Last week when IIP data came, many people thought it was very good number but here is some different analysis where it is clearly differentiated from MoM over YoY.

This is very simple & very good article about Financial Planning or Personal Finance

About Gold, there is very good comparison between Gold & ETFs.

I am back!!!

Yes guys I am back. I temporarily stopped posting, due to net problem. Now I got BSNL broadband I hope I resume my work as usual.

If you remember, I posted my last post in October 27th, after that I couldn't post anything due to above mentioned problem. Now you can ask is it takes almost 40-45 days to get new internet connection in a Metro like Bangalore! In fact I applied for BSNL broadband on 24th October if I am not wrong. And I got connection of phone line connection exactly one month of my registration, i.e. 24 of November. And in between I have been visiting local BSNL office on every weekend & REQUEST them for fast processing. And ultimately I have to bribe them(or in other words they demanded bribe) to get just the phone line connection, that too not working!

After all this they again took one week to activate my phone line & after week of that I got internet login & password to browse.

I wrote all this because I wanted to express my frustration & the way government offices work in these highly competitative environment. In one side, whole telecom industry feeling the heat of rate war between the rivals & BSNL is functioning like this. And when Central Government wanted to Divest/Disinvest part of its ownership, BSNL employees opposed for that!

Other competitors like Airtel, Tata Indicom & etc give service whenever, wherever we want that too immediately & with excellent cooperation. Here in BSNL office every office boy or clerk also acts as self crowned kings & leave about officers. So in this highly competative & customer service oriented era how the BSNL is going to maintain its market share. Already one major government owned company & which has experienced monopoly almost for 4 decades, i.e. LIC is loosing its market share very fast to its rival companies.

Anyway I wanted put forward my point of view, so I wrote it. So lets come to back our as usual topics like Stock market, Inflation, Economics & etc.

From last two to three months market is trading in range bound, i.e. Nifty is in the range of 4850 to 5180 broadly. One school of thought is market is consolidating before initiating another bull rally & other school of thought is market has rallied enough leaving behind the fundamentals of the economy. But whatever may be the analysts are saying market has its own causes & effects in LONG TERM!

And coming to Inflation, food inflation is going out of control & almost touched 20% because demand supply gap.

In addition to that IIP for October month is 10% which may not be very attractive number compared to last year BASE for same month, but all signals are leading towards probable RBI policy intervention.

And there are many more stuffs to write, I will do that in coming sessions...

Support an entrepreneur!!!

One of my friend, Anto has ventured into new business which he was planning from long time & discussed with us many times. Finally he has jumped into water, so I wish him all the best...

I am providing a link of his website in my blog so that whenever you guys wants place any order you can directly log into his website or through my blog u can proceed...

Following is the message from Anto, so I request all my readers to support in whatever manner you can...


Hi Friends,

To place your orders Rush in to www.nellaihalwawala.com

After plunging in lot of efforts to become an entrepreneur J, I have taken my first step to sell sweet from my native. Whether I become or not depends on you.J

Initial Inspirations are from you, the interest that you all have shown towards the halwa when I bring from my home town. Now with the same interest I would love to celebrate Diwali @ your home with my products presence along with our wishes.,

You do not have to worry about trapping your credit card details as the payment gateway has been setup by “PayPal”

Our Product:

1. Tirunelveli halwa - 0.5 KG – Rs 150/-

2. Tirunelveli halwa - 1 KG – Rs 275/-

To place your orders Rush in to www.nellaihalwawala.com

Our Process:

1. Your order for Halwa that is placed before 3 PM everyday will be dispatched on the same day.

2. Product are purchased from leading experts in Nellai junction

3. Halwa Delivered will be fresh for you as we directly send it from Tirunelveli

4. If your order is in Tamil Nadu/South India will be delivered in 2 working days.

5. Other Metros in India will be three Days

6. Other cities – 5 days

7. For now we deliver only within India, and planning to expand based on your support.

To place your orders Rush in to www.nellaihalwawala.com

During the initial phases I don’t have PR contacts to publish in Newspapers. All my Marketing is only through your mail boxes. Please forward it to your buddies and recommend to buy Halwa this Diwali

To place your orders Rush in to www.nellaihalwawala.com

You can contact us @ 91-9840414428 or 91-9840780857 in case of any queries you have about our product

_________________

Thanks & Regards,

Anto Jeyarajan I

Cell: 91-9840414428

Interesting Reading Material

Guys I am back in NAMMA BANGALORE from hot & humid BOMBAY(or MUMBAI)...

I read some interesting article...

Mr. Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh's speech @ G20 meeting at Pittsburgh, where he brought very critical issues like world GDP rate, fall in the per capita income, stimulus & its timing of exit, export promotion & issue of protectionism...

In yesterday's STOI there was an article from Mr. Swaminathan Aiyar about Indian Car Exports (18% growth) beating China's (60% fall). He has analyzed beautifully, just have a look at it...

As we all know September 15th was first anniversary of Lehman Bro collapse. So at that I thought posting some article on that, but somehow I couldn't. So article related that are...

Guys you may remember, last year in October I wrote an article about Securitization Vs Money Supply/Credit Creation. Where in I talked about the how securitization is multiplying the credit creation. Exactly after one year, that is now in September I read same material with little bit more information in Indian Express. Check it and compare with mine...

IIMA professor Javant Varma has written about Lessons to be learned from Lehman Bro. in Financial Express....

I read a research paper by Koji Kobayashi, senior economist on "TRILEMMA OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM IN INDIA" which covers various issues. Its very good & explained very well so that everybody can understand. And also covered the almost all whatever happened during these 2 years crisis. Interested people should read it infact I say should save it...

Going to Bombay due to some office work

Guys, due to some urgent office work, I will not be able to post any article/blog till this weekend or may be next weekend as we are not sure when the issue will be resolved.

So till then,

keep reading...

Does Karnataka Government Lacks Vision/Willingness

Yes, you read correctly only. Couple of days when I was reading the mint paper I got an article. That article was about "how the different cities of different states are contributing to country". So there was the survey based on the market size of different cities. Here is the snap of that article...


You can see that Bangalore is at number 4th position in market size and rest of the south Indian cities are following in the ranking.

But if see that snap carefully, from Tamil Nadu, there are 7 cities, Andhra Pradesh - 4 cities & even Kerala - 2 cities are in top 50 list of the country. This means in all these states not only one city is contributing, but all other cities from different locations in their respective states are contributing. Where as in Karnataka Bangalore is the only city in top 50 ranking. What about the rest of the cities like Mysore, Mangalore, Hubli, Belgaum, Gulbarga & etc which have very good potential to grow.

And if you look at the picture more carefully, you can see that each subsequent ranking cities with their respective states are contributing at least half of what its higher ranking city is contributing. For example in Tamil Nadu, Chennai's market size is Rs. 30586 crore & next Tamil Nadu city, i.e. Coimbatore's market size is Rs. 15056 crore and is same for Andhra Pradesh also, Hyderabad's - Rs. 20860 crore & next ranked city A.P. Rangareddy's - Rs. 10037 crore. But what about Karnataka, here Bangalore's market size is Rs. 41008 crore & next Mangalore might be less than Rs. 4000 crore since its not there in top 50.

This means there is a clear cut message that regional imbalance is much more in Karnataka as compared to other southern states. What might be the reasons for this? May be rapid growth of IT in Bangalore or Lack of vision/willingness of politicians towards the other regions of the state. According to me both are the reasons for this. But same condition applies to A.P. also where Hyderabad is one more Silicon city but other cities are also developed simultaneously.

Even if you keep aside the regional imbalance issue, does Bangalore is in position to develop further or in other words does Bangalore has infrastructure to support this kind market size. Think of Bangalore traffic, roads, flyovers & metro. When I think the metro, I think of Famous Kannada Actor Shankar Nag who thought of metro for Bangalore before 90s i.e. before his accidental death. That's the kind of vision Government needs to have for infrastructure, but Government has now taken the initiative for the metro after 20 years of Mr. Nag's vision.

From last 3-4 years I have discussed with many friends that "Government simultaneously needs to give priority Tier1 & Tier2 cities". Its not only applicable to Karnataka but to all the states & countries. Authorities needs to think of saturation level of major cities & subsequent preparation for other cities.

One may argue that companies dont like to go to other cities than the capital cities of the states. That again depends on State Government's willingness to persuade the companies by giving some facility like subsidized current, water, land & etc offer in other cities. In these "other cities" governemnt can encourage SMEs(Small & Medium Enterprises) to increase the employment & reduce over-dependency on agriculture.


Keep reading...

My Friend's Blog...

Hi Guys, its good that my blog is inspiring the other people to create the blog and spread the knowledge among ourselves. Two of friends Chiku & Jeetu have started the blog for Finance, economic & stock market related things. Both brilliant guys so we guys will get lot of insight from the blog. Do visit their blog not for my sake or not for their but for your sake!!!

Here is the link for their blog...

www.desperadofinmin.blogspot.com

Lets Learn Together....