Fundamental & Technical Views

Ajay Shah's interview in CNBC about macro economy and fundamentals. He is talking about RBI's surprise rate cut move, inflation threat (CPI numbers versus WPI numbers and their respective combination), robust revenue growth of listed companies, dilemma of IIP numbers and GDP data from CSO, economic problems (obviously not BOP crisis like early 90s).

Gautam Shah of JM Financial talking about technical's of Indian markets. He is one of finest readers of technicals of markets and according to him, market is in the consolidation range from January's rally and could rally to a level of 5750-5800 if it breaks out 5350 with concise volume and conviction. He is bullish on Banking sector, ADAG pack and Indian Rupee.

Interesting Updates

RBI Governor took quantum leap by decreasing Repo rate 50 basis points when most of the analyst community was expecting 25 basis points. Below are some of the important highlights of his speech...

--> Repo rate reduced by 50 basis points to 8 percent and consequently Reverse repo would be adjusted to 7 percent and Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) rate gets back to 9 percent as both of these are pegged to Repo rate with 100 basis points lower and higher respectively.

--> Now banks can borrow 2 percent under from MSF adjustments from earlier 1 percent.

--> RBI expect GDP growth of 7.3 percent for 2012-13 against the government's projection of 7.6 percent.

--> According to RBI, inflation for March 2013 is 6.5 percent.

--> Non food credit growth of 17 percent.

--> Potential Risk: 1. Oil price and fear of supply disruptions

2. Deterioration of fiscal deficit

3. Government Borrowing

4. Financing C/A deficit

5. Structural shift in preference of food basket

--> NBFC's (particularly Gold Loan Companies) borrowing limit has been reduced to 7.5 percent from 10 percent of bank's capital.

Ruchir Sharma of Morgan Stanley talking about Indian growth scenario.

George Soros observation about EURO.

The Great Depression and the Great Recession: What Have We Learnt?

Read an interesting speech by Prof. Michael D. Bordo about above mentioned topic...

Click here to read.