I am back!!!

Yes guys I am back! Almost I took a break of 2 weeks from posting due to various reasons. Lot of things happened in this due-course in National level, International level, Political front, Economic issues like Inflation, IIP numbers, Stock market... Of course I cant cover all the things happened in this 2 weeks but I tried brief what all happened & my views about those...

Starting with my favourite topic "Inflation", it came down to historical low level of 0.44% from 2.43%. Here you can see the drop level is almost 200 basis points which is not a good sign for economy point of view. But is this sign of contraction in demand or just I was arguing with many days like "High Base Effect".

Till today[& now also] I argued that its a High Base Effect which is causing the Inflation to fall so drastically. But If you the see the today's fall of almost 200 basis points & 0.4% drop in WPI may indicating future fall in the demand to various economic conditions. So now the country is going to sustain the growth levels? How the governments create the jobs when Fiscal Deficit is already crossing 8% of the GDP!

And if it is only Base Effect problem what is remedy for this problem? Remember this is not going to end here in this year! Since next couple of months we are going to face deflation [speaking statistically] next year same period is going to high inflated zone. In addition to that next year overall world economy is will be in revival mode so crude oil, commodity prices & by default manufacturing products starts zooming out. So what we will do at that time? How our monetary policy will be?

Now coming back to stock market, last week only 3 days were trading days & I think it gave much needed gap to the falling market. BSE Sensex almost touched 8000 levels & from their we are seeing a bear market rally now. I can say market is trying to find out the bottom around 8000 levels, even though it sounds very early & optimistic looking at present conditions. But if you see the bear market patterns, all bear markets almost lasted for 18 to 24 months. And here from last 15 months we are in bear market, I can say we are at least near the bottom of the market if at not at the bottom! And one more supporting point is till now FIIs have been major sellers & DIIs have been buyers, once the redemption pressure from FII side zero, I think FIIs will return to Chinese & Indian markets.[Already Chinese markets have given 20%+ returns in this year].

Now coming to National Politics front now a days there is too much talk going on about so called "The Third Front". According to me media is giving unnecessary giving too much importance to this circus for bunch of unhappy divorced parties. Actually in Kannada there is one phrase "AATKKUNTU LEKKAKKILLA", that means there are in the play but dont count them! They can never form a stable government & they will not do this time also. If you see the leaders of third front you see all the people are rejected by either by Congress or BJP! See Devegouda who calls himself as secular, allowed his Younger Son Mr. Kumarswami to take over the party & join the hands with so called communal BJP in Karnataka for 20 months. At that these same CPI & CPM leaders threaten Gowda, warned about his end of carrier in national front. And now all are together. And coming to Chandra Babu Naidu, Jayalalitha & Mayawati I think they are playing opportunistic politics rather than doing any ideology! And if you see today's speech of Mr. Karat he is ready to talk to Congress after the election, what is the need to join hands with the 3rd front? And particularly I fail to understand why people like Karat, being a highly educated from JNU behaves like that? And in which era they are living, compare China & India, we are lagging 20 years behind to china in in all developments!