Is Worst Over For India???

This may be a very premature question! But if you look at the presently available data in various forms, all those are reflecting one common thing, that is may be worst is over for India.

We will go one by one...

Yesterday GDP numbers came in and because of that (and some other reasons) market (sensex) went some 300 odd points and crossed 14600 mark. Anyway I talk about the market later, first we will look into GDP numbers. Guys who read my blogs regularly, you may be remember that in February, I wrote in blog that for the fiscal year 2008-09 GDP may grow by 6.5% to 6.7%. For your convenience, I am pasting one paragraph from that post of February...

"Now if we calculate the first 9 month GDP it will come to 6.93% [(7.9+7.6+5.3)/3] & to achieve the earlier predicted target of 7.1% we need to have 7.7% [(7.1*4)- (7.9+7.6+5.3)in the 4th quarter. That is quite optimistic figure looking at present conditions. Going by present economic conditions India's GDP growth for fiscal year 2008-09 may be 6.5% to 6.7%."

And according to yesterday's GDP reports, India's GDP growth for the fiscal 2008-09 was .6.7%. In 4th quarter GDP growth was 5.8% as compared to 3rd quarter 5.3%. Here you can see that I am not comparing this data with 4th quarter of 2007-08 in which GDP growth was 8.8% which was altogether different scenario as compared to present condition. The real saver of the day was Agriculture sector which has grown at 2.7% in 4th quarter as compared to 3rd quarter's revised data of -0.8%.

Manufacturing sector has grown -1.4% which was no big surprise if you would have seen last 2-3 months IIP numbers.

And if you look at the construction sector it has grown 6.8% in 4th quarter as compared to 4.2% in 3rd quarter. The financial services sector, among the most affected, grew at 9.5 per cent in January-March 2009, compared with 8.3 per cent in October-December 2008.

And these are the GDP related indicators, now when you come to stock market numbers, it has grown nearly 75% as compared to 8000 odd levels in March to 14600 odd levels by May. And the reality, metal & bank index have grown 180%, 140% & 120% respectively in 3 months period. And you people may be aware that stock market is considered as the leading indicator for an economy. In addition to that other indexes which I have mentioned like Metal, Reality & Bank form the crucial in an economy, which are showing growth indication in stock market as absolute terms.

And when you come to Inflation by WPI everybody thought it will be in negative form from March. But it still in positive though it is below 1% as compared to very high base of previous year. This shows the buying power hasnt affected by this recession which is a good sign for any economy.

Anyway I will continue some other time as I am feeling hungry now... Take care guys, bye until my next post...