Highlights of Year 2010 and Decade...

First, I wish all my friends and readers a very happy new year 2011.
Second, I decided to take serious resolution first-time in life for new year as to read more and write more personally and professionally!
Now coming to today's topic, year 2010 has been very interesting for markets due to various reasons and witnessed a lot. From these, I have collected 10 important information from www.moneycontrol.com and www.economictimes.com, so thought of sharing with you guys...

1. The Sensex and Nifty rallied 17% each this year while the midcap index is up 16%.
2. The commodities markets have also seen a significant upside with crude being up 13%.
3. Gold has seen appreciation of 28% this year.
4. Silver has been best asset class in 2010 in comparison with all others as it gained 81%.
5. The total investor wealth, measured in terms of cumulative market capitalisation of all listed companies, rose to Rs 72,96,725.14 crore, from Rs 60,79,000 crore at the end of 2009. During the period, the Sensex rose from 17,464.81 points on December 31, 2009 to 20,509.09 points today.
6. As end 2010 is also end of the decade, lets look at the performance Indian markets in this decade. On January 1, 2001, the total market capitalization of the Bombay Stock Exchange was about Rs. 700,000 crore, that is USD 150 billion. Currently, the total market capitalization of BSE is about Rs. 70,70,000 crore, that is USD 1570 billion. This means, the BSE has added about Rs 63,70,000 crore of additional market cap over the past decade, indicating a 9 times increase in market cap over the past decade.
7. At the beginning of the decade, the Sensex was at 3972. Currently, it is trading at 20,527, a 416% rise over the past decade. In other words, if somebody had invested Rs 100,000 in the Sensex at the beginning of the decade, it would have currently become Rs 516,792.
   
8. Now coming to2010 again, this year FII inflows have been the highest ever in India's history at USD 28.6 billion in nine and a half months. In 2009, FIIs invested USD 17.6 billion while the year before in 2008, India registered foreign investors inflows of USD 12.7 billion. One-third of the total FII inflows this year went into the primary market.
9. MF outflows for the year stood at USD 6 billion, also the highest ever in history. A year ago, outflows stood at USD 1.17 billion. Domestic insurance inflows however have seen a steady decline over the last two years. For the year, they came in at a moderate USD 1.5 billion, as against the USD 7 billion registered in 2009 and USD 13.6 billion in 2008.
10. Domestic insurance inflows however have seen a steady decline over the last two years. For the year, they came in at a moderate USD 1.5 billion, as against the USD 7 billion registered in 2009 and USD 13.6 billion in 2008.

Apart from index based news I have taken some stock specific news and global index movements, of which I am posting top 10 companies' stocks (Mid caps and Small Caps only) details below...

Top 10 Mid-cap gainers...

Top 10 Mid-cap losers...

Top 10 Small-cap Gainers...

Top 10 BIG-SURPRISE GAINERS...

Global Index Performances(over three crisis years)...

One more Nifty chart

Bull market corrections

Yesterday when I read about Bull market corrections in one of the blog which I follow; I also thought of writing about it in my blog for my readers. In fact I wrote about Bull market corrections two times in my blog in August 2010. Click here 1, 2 for details...

First talking about bull market, the technical definition (according to Dow theory) of the bull market in simple terms is higher highs and higher lows. This means market will make new highs and bottoms after each corrections will be new lows without breaching previous correction's lows.

For your information I have collected some details from this present bull trend (you may call it as market also!) which started from March 2009. First one is above graph in I have shown 5 corrections. For each correction I have collected some more information which is as below...

Peak level	Bottom level	Correction(Absolute)	Correction(Percentage)
4600	4000	600	13.04
5120	4580	540	10.55
5275	4725	550	10.43
5375	4820	555	10.33
6310	5750	560	8.87

If you see the above table & graph there are some resemblances in each corrections like

1. Each part of bull lasted fro 2 months
2. Following correction from each bull lasted for one month
3. Average correction in Nifty in absolute terms is in the range of 540-600 points
4. Each time Nifty faced correction of 10% to 13% at max
5. Each correction bottomed around either @ 100 day EMA or @ 200 day EMA
6. For each correction RSI had shown oversold point (touching level of 30) each time

Now coming to present correction, Nifty on closing basis started correcting from 6310 levels and closed on Friday at 5750 levels, that is of 560 points fall which is in the range of previous falls. But here there are some differences like

--> In percentage terms it is almost 9% percent, so couple of more percentage fall might be there for Nifty to bottom out and consolidate
--> If you see the RSI, still it is not in oversold zone, that is it is yet to touch 30 levels in the oscillator
--> 200 day EMA is @ 5523 and 100 day EMA is @ 5800 which is already broken on closing basis for 2 days. So I feel Nifty may bottom out and consolidate in the range of 5650 (considering global & country's news flow may not averse) which is another 100 points fall from present level and also 10% fall from the peak which will be in line with the previous falls and within the broad trend.

Nifty movement

Will Nifty hold onto October lows of 5940-5950? A big question mark after today's fall. On Ireland debt and China's possible monetary action triggered Asian markets sell off. Whatever may be the reason, charts are predicting the similar patterns what happened during 4800-5500 levels of Nifty between February and May.

Coming to present present fall, Nifty witnessed successive fall forming large "BEARISH ENGULFING" patterns. Nifty for time being should find support at 596o levels, if that level breaks this CORRECTIVE PATTERN should find the 5880-5860 which is also a 100 day moving average support and trend line ending point. Even RSI is also not showing overbought condition in its oscillation. If that breaks then I feel there will be a lot of selling pressure and fresh shorts may be created in the market.

Another possible breakout in Hanung Toys

The stock which I found out at Rs. 120 odd levels around 6 months back now trading at Rs. 400. Now question is not about the finding the stock or price discovery or for that matter stock discovery. Question is price movement along with other technical indicators like volume, MACD Moving Average Convergence & Divergence), RSI (Relative Strength Index) & etc.

As I marked in above graph, every time stock breaks out of consolidation range it moves with large volume with movement in MACD or RSI or Stochastics. So you need to look at all possible angles before you jump into or out of the stock not just by looking at stock price movement.

Nifty could find demand zone around 5980-6000